China's economic growth and rebalancing
AbstractIn this paper we provide an overview of the growth model in China and its prospects, taking a medium-run to long-run perspective. Our main conclusions are as follows. First, the still prevailing producer-biased model of managed capitalism in China tends to engender, as an inherent byproduct, serious imbalances which cannot be unwound without a fundamental overhaul of the model itself. Second, given the lack of a critical mass of economic reforms thus far, imbalances may (re-)escalate once global and domestic economic conditions normalise. Third, the fundamental factors underpinning growth in China are likely to remain supportive, at least over the medium run. Although this could help mitigate the economic costs of imbalances for some time to come, it could also reduce the incentives for policy-makers to enact much needed reforms. Fourth, delayed policy action and the persistence of the model of growth cum imbalances would increase the risk of China getting caught in the middle-income trap in the long run. Greater political will to redirect China’s growth model towards a more sustainable path is therefore needed. JEL Classification: C22, C51, C53, C59
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by European Central Bank in its series Occasional Paper Series with number 142.
Date of creation: Feb 2013
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Postfach 16 03 19, Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Phone: +49 69 1344 0
Fax: +49 69 1344 6000
Web page: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html
More information through EDIRC
Postal: Press and Information Division, European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Other versions of this item:
- E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
- E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Capital; Investment; Capacity
- E25 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Aggregate Factor Income Distribution
- F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
- F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
- O11 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
- O - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-03-23 (All new papers)
- NEP-DEV-2013-03-23 (Development)
- NEP-FDG-2013-03-23 (Financial Development & Growth)
- NEP-TRA-2013-03-23 (Transition Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Gabor Pula & Daniel Santabárbara, 2012.
"Is china climbing up the quality ladder?,"
Banco de Espaï¿½a Working Papers
1209, Banco de Espa�a.
- Pula, Gabor & Daniel Santabarbara, Daniel, 2012. "Is China climbing up the quality ladder?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 23/2012, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
- Pula, Gabor & Santabárbara, Daniel, 2011. "Is China climbing up the quality ladder? Estimating cross country differences in product quality using Eurostat's COMEXT trade database," Working Paper Series 1310, European Central Bank.
- Ettore Dorrucci & Gabor Pula & Daniel Santabárbara, 2013.
"China’s economic growth and rebalancing,"
Banco de Espaï¿½a Occasional Papers
1301, Banco de Espa�a.
- Muto, Ichiro & Fukumoto, Tomoyuki, 2011.
"Rebalancing China’s economic growth: some insights from Japan’s experience,"
32570, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Tomoyuki Fukumoto & Ichiro Muto, 2012. "Rebalancing China's Economic Growth: Some Insights from Japan's Experience," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 20(1), pages 62-82, 01.
- Sarai Criado & Adrian van Rixtel, 2008. "Structured finance and the financial turmoil of 2007-2008: and introductory overview," Banco de Espaï¿½a Occasional Papers 0808, Banco de Espa�a.
- Olympia Bover, 2008. "The Spanish Survey of Household Finances (EFF): description and methods of the 2005 wave," Banco de Espaï¿½a Occasional Papers 0803, Banco de Espa�a.
- Yiping Huang & Kunyu Tao, 2011.
"Causes of and Remedies for the Peopleâ€™s Republic of Chinaâ€™s External Imbalances : The Role of Factor Market Distortion,"
Macroeconomics Working Papers
23257, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
- Yiping Huang & Kunyu Tao, 2011. "Causes of and Remedies for the Peopleâ€™s Republic of Chinaâ€™s External Imbalances : The Role of Factor Market Distortion," Finance Working Papers 23257, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
- Lee, Jong-Wha & Hong, Kiseok, 2010.
"Economic Growth in Asia: Determinants and Prospects,"
ADB Economics Working Paper Series
220, Asian Development Bank.
- Lee, Jong-Wha & Hong, Kiseok, 2012. "Economic growth in Asia: Determinants and prospects," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 101-113.
- Park , Donghyun & Park, Jungsoo, 2010. "Drivers of Developing Asia's Growth: Past and Future," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 235, Asian Development Bank.
- Emanuele Baldacci & Ding Ding & David Coady & Giovanni Callegari & Pietro Tommasino & Jaejoon Woo & Manmohan S. Kumar, 2010. "Public Expenditures on Social Programs and Household Consumption in China," IMF Working Papers 10/69, International Monetary Fund.
- Kumiko Okazaki & Masazumi Hattori & Wataru Takahashi, 2011. "The Challenges Confronting the Banking System Reform in China: An Analysis in Light of Japan's Experience of Financial Liberalization," IMES Discussion Paper Series 11-E-06, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
- Fang Cai & Meiyan Wang, 2008. "A Counterfactual Analysis on Unlimited Surplus Labor in Rural China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 16(1), pages 51-65.
- Dorrucci, Ettore & Pula, Gabor & Santabárbara, Daniel, 2013.
"China's economic growth and rebalancing,"
Occasional Paper Series
142, European Central Bank.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Official Publications).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.