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Do China's capital controls still bind? Implications for monetary autonomy and capital liberalisation

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  • Guonan Ma
  • Robert N. McCauley

Abstract

The paper argues that China's capital controls remain substantially binding. This has allowed the Chinese authorities to retain some degree of short-term monetary autonomy, despite the fixed exchange rate up to July 2005. Although the Chinese capital controls have not been watertight, we find sustained and significant gaps between onshore and offshore renminbi interest rates and persistent dollar/renminbi interest rate differentials during the period of a de facto dollar peg. While some cross-border flows do respond to market expectations and relative yields, they have not been large enough to equalise onshore and offshore renminbi yields.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank for International Settlements in its series BIS Working Papers with number 233.

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Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:233

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Related research

Keywords: Foreign exchange market; capital flows; capital controls; monetary policy; financial stability and the Chinese economy;

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References

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  1. Guy Debelle & Jacob Gyntelberg & Michael Plumb, 2006. "Forward currency markets in Asia: lessons from the Australian experience," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
  2. Guonan Ma & Corrinne Ho & Robert N McCauley, 2004. "The markets for non-deliverable forwards in Asian currencies," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, June.
  3. Yoon Je Cho & Robert N McCauley, 2003. "Liberalising the capital account without losing balance: lessons from Korea," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), China's capital account liberalisation: international perspective, volume 15, pages 75-92 Bank for International Settlements.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Liu, Yan & Chang, Hsu-Ling & Su, Chi-Wei, 2013. "Do real interest rates converge across East Asian countries based on China?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 467-473.
  2. Jorg Bibow, 2011. "Permanent and Selective Capital Account Management Regimes as an Alternative to Self-Insurance Strategies in Emerging-market Economies," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_683, Levy Economics Institute.
  3. Reuven Glick & Michael Hutchison, 2008. "Navigating the Trilemma: Capital Flows and Monetary Policy in China," Working Papers 252008, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  4. Hongyi Chen & Lars Jonung & Olaf Unteroberdoerster, 2009. "Lessons for China from Financial Liberalization in Scandinavia," Working Papers 262009, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  5. Wendy Dobson & Anil K Kashyap, 2006. "The Contradiction in China’s Gradualist Banking Reforms," Working Papers Series 08, Rotman Institute for International Business, Joseph L. Rotman School of Management, University of Toronto.
  6. Dobson, Wendy & Masson, Paul R., 2009. "Will the renminbi become a world currency?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 124-135, March.
  7. Reuven Glick & Michael Hutchison, 2013. "China’s financial linkages with Asia and the global financial crisis," Working Paper Series 2013-12, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  8. Hutchison, Michael & Kendall, Jake & Pasricha, Gurnain Kaur & Singh, Nirvikar, 2009. "Indian Capital Control Liberalization: Evidence from NDF Markets," MPRA Paper 13630, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Ferrantino, Michael J. & Liu, Xuepeng & Wang, Zhi, 2012. "Evasion behaviors of exporters and importers: Evidence from the U.S.–China trade data discrepancy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 141-157.
  10. Straub, Roland & Thimann, Christian, 2009. "The external and domestic side of macroeconomic adjustment in China," Working Paper Series 1040, European Central Bank.
  11. Kevin Gallagher, 2011. "Regaining Control? Capital Controls and the Global Financial Crisis," Working Papers wp250, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
  12. Gunther Schnabl, 2011. "The role of the chinese dollar peg for macroeconomic stability in China and the world economy," Global Financial Markets Working Paper Series 13-2010, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
  13. Liu, Lin & Chang, Hsu-Ling & Su, Chi-Wei & Jiang, Chun, 2013. "Real interest rate parity in East Asian countries based on China with flexible Fourier stationary test," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25, pages 52-58.

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