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The Sources and Sustainability of China's Economic Growth

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Author Info

  • Gary H. Jefferson

    (Brandeis University)

  • Albert G. Z. Hu

    (National University of Singapore)

  • Jian Su

    (Peking University)

Abstract

China’s economic transformation is proceeding at different rates across different regions and sectors, and China’s most advanced regional sector, coastal industry, still lags well behind the world’s technology frontier. This paper explores the implications of these internal and international productivity disparities for China’s ability to sustain rapid economic growth. When China’s GDP catches up to U.S. GDP, Chinese living standards still will be only one quarter those of the United States. If, at that time, productivity in some major regions and sectors remains far below the average, coastal industry may have to achieve productivity that approaches or even exceeds U.S. productivity. Coastal industry’s productivity growth is then likely to slow substantially, impeding China’s overall economic growth. The paper examines the need for policies that facilitate economic integration across regions, to enable the lagging regions and sectors to catch up to coastal industry, and the prospects for continued institutional reform.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution in its journal Brookings Papers on Economic Activity.

Volume (Year): 37 (2006)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 1-60

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Handle: RePEc:bin:bpeajo:v:37:y:2006:i:2006-2:p:1-60

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Keywords: China; macroeconomics; economic growth; China GDP;

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Cited by:
  1. Wendy Dobson & Paul R. Masson, 2007. "Will the Renminbi Become a World Currency?," Working Papers Series 10, Rotman Institute for International Business, Joseph L. Rotman School of Management, University of Toronto, revised Dec 2007.
  2. Andersson, Fredrik N.G. & Edgerton, David L. & Opper, Sonja, 2013. "A Matter of Time: Revisiting Growth Convergence in China," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 239-251.
  3. Paul Deng & Gary Jefferson, 2011. "Explaining Spatial Convergence of China’s Industrial Productivity," Working Papers 32, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Businesss School.
  4. Lu, Zheng & Deng, Xiang, 2011. "China's Western Development Strategy: Policies, Effects and Prospects," MPRA Paper 35201, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Su, Jian & Jefferson, Gary H., 2012. "Differences in returns to FDI between China's coast and interior: One country, two economies?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 259-269.
  6. Linda Yueh, 2008. "How Productive is Chinese Labour? The Contributions of Labour Market Reforms, Competition and Globalisation," Economics Series Working Papers 418, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  7. Straub, Roland & Thimann, Christian, 2009. "The external and domestic side of macroeconomic adjustment in China," Working Paper Series 1040, European Central Bank.
  8. George M. von Furstenberg, 2007. "Aspects, Models and Measures for Assessing the Competitiveness of International Financial Services in a Particular Location," Working Papers 182007, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  9. Virginie JACQUIER-ROUX & Christian LE BAS, 2008. "Localisation Des Activités De R&D Des Firmes Multinationales, Modes D’Organisation En Réseaux Et Transfert Transnational Des Connaissances : Un Cadre D’Analyse," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 28, pages 11-38.

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