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Are Currency Revaluations Contractionary in China?

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  • Jianhuai Shi

    (China Center for Economic Research)

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    Abstract

    Chinese economy has been in a state of external imbalance and internal imbalance for some years, which certainly has something to do with the undervaluation of renminbi (RMB). But Chinese Government hesitates to revalue RMB because of the worry that RMB revaluations are contractionary thus have negative impact on China's economic growth and employment. The purpose of this paper is to empirically assess the effects of RMB real exchange rate on China's output. The econometric work of the paper shows that even after sources of spurious correlation and reverse causation are controlled for, RMB revaluation has led to a decline in Chinas output, suggesting that RMB revaluations do be contractionary. The paper gives some possible explanations to this finding, and points out that the finding does not consequentially imply that China should continue maintaining the undervaluation of RMB.

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    File URL: http://saber.eaber.org/node/22712
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by East Asian Bureau of Economic Research in its series Macroeconomics Working Papers with number 22712.

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    Date of creation: Jan 2006
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    Handle: RePEc:eab:macroe:22712

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    Related research

    Keywords: renminbi; exchange rate misalignment; contractionary devaluation; VAR model;

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    1. Virginie Coudert & Cécile Couharde, 2005. "Real Equilibrium Exchange Rate in China," Working Papers 2005-01, CEPII research center.
    2. Kamin, Steve B. & Rogers, John H., 2000. "Output and the real exchange rate in developing countries: an application to Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 85-109, February.
    3. Sweder van Wijnbergen, 1986. "Exchange Rate Management and Stabilization Policies in Developing Countries," NBER Chapters, in: Economic Adjustment and Exchange Rates in Developing Countries, pages 17-42 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Alexander W. Hoffmaister & Carlos A. Végh, 1996. "Disinflation and The Recession-Now-versus-Recession-Later Hypothesis: Evidence from Uruguay," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(2), pages 355-394, June.
    5. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2005. "Contractionary Currency Crashes In Developing Countries," Working Paper Series rwp05-017, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    6. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
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