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Are Real Devaluations Contractionary? an Empirical Analysis for Pakistan

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Author Info

  • Naeem Ur Rehman Khattak

    ()
    (Dean, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Peshawar, Pakistan.)

  • Muhammad Tariq

    ()
    (Ph.D. Scholar at Department of Economics, University of Peshawar, Pakistan.)

Abstract

The failure of Bretton Woods system in 1970s diverted the attention of the researchers and policy makers from the orthodox wisdoms of elasticities, absorptions and Keynesian towards the new structuralist theories of contractionary depreciations. The present study has been carried out to test this contractionary hypothesis of real depreciations for Pakistan in the framework of a three version IS curve approach by using annual data over the period, 1973-2008. The main finding of the study is that real depreciation increases the output gap in Pakistan. The results also show that movement towards a more flexible exchange rate regimes also raises the output gap.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Asian Economic and Social Society in its journal Asian Economic and Financial Review.

Volume (Year): 2 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 119-134

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Handle: RePEc:asi:aeafrj:2012:p:119-134

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Related research

Keywords: New Structuralist theories; Open Economy IS Curve Model; Contractionary Depreciations; Output gap;

References

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  1. Sebastian Edwards, 1985. "Are Devaluations Contractionary?," NBER Working Papers 1676, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Svensson, Lars E.O., 1998. "Open-Economy Inflation Targeting," Seminar Papers 638, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  3. Upadhyaya, Kamal P., 1999. "Currency devaluation, aggregate output, and the long run: an empirical study," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 197-202, August.
  4. Solimano, Andres, 1986. "Contractionary devaluation in the southern cone : The case of Chile," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 135-151, September.
  5. Gylfason, Thorvaldur & Risager, Ole, 1984. "Does devaluation improve the current account?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 37-64, June.
  6. Gylfason, Thorvaldur & Radetzki, Marian, 1991. "Does Devaluation Make Sense in the Least Developed Countries?," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 40(1), pages 1-25, October.
  7. Sweder van Wijnbergen, 1986. "Exchange Rate Management and Stabilization Policies in Developing Countries," NBER Chapters, in: Economic Adjustment and Exchange Rates in Developing Countries, pages 17-42 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Robert J. Barro, 2001. "Economic Growth in East Asia Before and After the Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 8330, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Buffie, Edward F, 1986. "Devaluation and Imported Inputs: The Large Economy Case," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 27(1), pages 123-40, February.
  10. Betts, Caroline & Devereux, Michael B., 1996. "The exchange rate in a model of pricing-to-market," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 1007-1021, April.
  11. Thorvaldur Gylfason & Michael Schmid, 1983. "Does Devaluation Cause Stagflation?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 16(4), pages 641-54, November.
  12. Taye, Haile Kebret, 1999. "The Impact of Devaluation on Macroeconomic Performance: The Case of Ethiopia," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 481-496, July.
  13. Ghura, Dhaneshwar & Grennes, Thomas J., 1993. "The real exchange rate and macroeconomic performance in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 155-174, October.
  14. Guerrero, Federico, 2006. "Does inflation cause poor long-term growth performance?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 72-89, January.
  15. Mohammad Afzal, 2004. "Estimating Long-run Trade Elasticities in Pakistan: A Cointegration Approach," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 43(4), pages 757-770.
  16. Steven B. Kamin & Marc Klau, 1998. "Some multi-country evidence on the effects of real exchange rates on output," International Finance Discussion Papers 611, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  17. Melander, Ola, 2009. "The Effects of Real Exchange Rate Depreciation in an Economy with Extreme Liability Dollarization," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 715, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 28 Jul 2009.
  18. Khan , Shahrukh R. & Aftab, Safiya, 1996. "Devaluation and the Balance of Trade: A Policy Analysis for Pakistan," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio di Genova, vol. 49(2), pages 247-260.
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Cited by:
  1. Santiago Grullón, 2012. "A Co-integration Analysis of the Dominican Republic‘s Aggregate Import Demand Function under a Floating Exchange Rate Regime," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 2(2), pages 282-289, June.

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