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The End of Import-Led Growth? North Korean Evidence

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Author Info

  • Sumie Sato

    (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University)

  • Mototsugu Fukushige

    (Graduate School of Economics, Osaka university)

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate causal relationships among exports, imports, and economic growth in North Korea by using time series data for the period between 1964 and 2004. The empirical results show that there was Granger causality from imports to GNP in the first half of the period. However, there was a causal relationship from GNP to imports in the second half of the period. This implies that economic growth stimulates imports in North Korea. The North Korean economy escaped its import-led growth situation, which some socialist economies had experienced.

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File URL: http://www2.econ.osaka-u.ac.jp/library/global/dp/0738.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics and Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP) in its series Discussion Papers in Economics and Business with number 07-38.

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Length: 20 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:osk:wpaper:0738

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Keywords: North Korea; import-led growth; export-led growth; causality test.;

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References

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  1. Urvashi Dhawan & Bagala Biswal, 1999. "Re-examining export-led growth hypothesis: a multivariate cointegration analysis for India," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(4), pages 525-530.
  2. Noland, Marcus & Robinson, Sherman & Scatasta, Monica, 1997. "Modeling economic reform in North Korea," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 15-38.
  3. Jordan Shan & Fiona Sun, 1998. "On the export-led growth hypothesis: the econometric evidence from China," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(8), pages 1055-1065.
  4. Abdulnasser Hatemi-J & Manuchehr Irandoust, 2001. "Time-series evidence for Balassa's export-led growth hypothesis," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(3), pages 355-365.
  5. Subrata Ghatak & Chris Milner & Utku Utkulu, 1997. "Exports, export composition and growth : cointegration and causality evidence for Malaysia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(2), pages 213-223.
  6. Noland, Marcus & Robinson, Sherman & Wang, Tao, 2000. "Rigorous Speculation: The Collapse and Revival of the North Korean Economy," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 28(10), pages 1767-1787, October.
  7. Marcus Noland & Sherman Robinson & Tao Wang, 1999. "Famine in North Korea: Causes and Cures," Working Paper Series WP99-2, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  8. Kim, Woon Keun & Lee, Hyunok & Sumner, Daniel A, 1998. "Assessing the Food Situation in North Korea," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 46(3), pages 519-35, April.
  9. Marcus Noland, 2006. "Transition from the Bottom-Up: Institutional Change in North Korea," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(2), pages 195-212, June.
  10. Bagala Biswal & Urvashi Dhawan, 1998. "Export-led growth hypothesis: cointegration and causality analysis for Taiwan," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(11), pages 699-701.
  11. Noland, Marcus & Robinson, Sherman & Wang, Tao, 2000. "Modeling Korean Unification," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 400-421, June.
  12. Jordan Shan & Fiona Sun, 1999. "Export-led growth and the US economy: some further testing," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(3), pages 169-172.
  13. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
  14. Suk-In Chang, 1997. "The Effects of Economic Integration Between North and South Korea: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(4), pages 1-16.
  15. Chen, Kang & Jefferson, Gary H. & Singh, Inderjit, 1992. "Lessons from China's economic reform," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 201-225, June.
  16. Shandre Mugan Thangavelu & Gulasekaran Rajaguru, 2004. "Is there an export or import-led productivity growth in rapidly developing Asian countries? a multivariate VAR analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(10), pages 1083-1093.
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Cited by:
  1. Aleksandra Parteka & Joanna Wolszczak-Derlacz, 2012. "The Impact of Trade Integration with the EU on Porductivity in a Post-Transition Economy. The Case of Polish Manufacturing Sectors," Working Papers 1202, Instytut Rozwoju, Institute for Development.
  2. Jaime Andrés Collazos & Pedro Luis Rosero, 2010. "¿Posee el Valle del Cauca una economía transformadora de importaciones orientadas a la Exportación?," DOCUMENTOS DE POLÍTICAS PÚBLICAS 006880, UNIVERSIDAD ICESI.

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