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Famine in North Korea: Causes and Cures

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  • Marcus Noland

    ()
    (Peterson Institute for International Economics)

  • Sherman Robinson

    (Peterson Institute for International Economics)

  • Tao Wang

    (Peterson Institute for International Economics)

Abstract

In this paper we start from incomplete data ridden with gross measurement errors to construct the underlying data base for a computable general equilibrium model (CGE) of the North Korean economy using cross-entropy estimation techniques. This model incorporates fragmentary information in a rigorous way and allows us to examine the implications of a number of alternative scenarios. First, we model a production-oriented recovery program as the restoration of flood-affected lands. We then model an external assistance program as the acquisition of all food aid necessary to attain the United Nations organizations' estimates of minimum human needs. The trade-oriented recovery program is modeled as a relaxation of agricultural import quotas and the importation of food on commercial terms. Finally, we model a systemic reform program as the elimination of quantitative restrictions on all external trade.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Peterson Institute for International Economics in its series Working Paper Series with number WP99-2.

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Date of creation: 1999
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Handle: RePEc:iie:wpaper:wp99-2

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References

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  1. Marcus Noland & Sherman Robinson & Tao Wang, 1999. "Rigorous Speculation: The Collapse and Revival of the North Korean Economy," Working Paper Series WP99-1, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  2. Stephen Coate, 1987. "Cash Versus Direct Food Relief," Discussion Papers 724R, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  3. Golan, Amos & Judge, George & Robinson, Sherman, 1994. "Recovering Information from Incomplete or Partial Multisectoral Economic Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(3), pages 541-49, August.
  4. Marcus Noland & Sherman Robinson & Li-Gang Liu, 1997. "The Economics of Korean Unification," Working Paper Series WP97-5, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  5. Golan, Amos & Judge, George G. & Miller, Douglas, 1996. "Maximum Entropy Econometrics," Staff General Research Papers 1488, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  6. Robinson, Sherman & Cattaneo, Andrea & El-Said, Moataz, 1998. "Estimating a social accounting matrix using cross entropy methods:," TMD discussion papers 33, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
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Cited by:
  1. Stephan Haggard & Marcus Noland, 2008. "Famine in North Korea Redux?," Economics Study Area Working Papers 97, East-West Center, Economics Study Area.
  2. MoonJoong Tcha & Fiona Lio, 2002. "An Analysis of Food Aid and Altruism," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 02-19, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
  3. Sumie Sato & Mototsugu Fukushige, 2007. "The End of Import-Led Growth? North Korean Evidence," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 07-38, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics and Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP).
  4. Marcus Noland, 2004. "Famine and Reform in North Korea," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 3(2), pages 1-40.
  5. Plümper, Thomas & Neumayer, Eric, 2009. "Famine Mortality, Rational Political Inactivity, and International Food Aid," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 50-61, January.
  6. Chang, Yoonok & Haggard, Stephan & Noland, Marcus, 2009. "Exit polls: Refugee assessments of North Korea's transition," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 144-150, March.
  7. Sato, Sumie & Fukushige, Mototsugu, 2011. "The North Korean economy: Escape from import-led growth," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 76-83, February.

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