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Famine in North Korea: Causes and Cures

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  • Noland, Marcus
  • Robinson, Sherman
  • Wang, Tao

Abstract

In this paper we start from incomplete data ridden with gross measurement errors to construct the underlying data base for a computable general equilibrium model (CGE) of the North Korean economy using cross-entropy estimation techniques. This model incorporates fragmentary information in a rigorous way and allows us to examine the implications of a number of alternative scenarios. First, we model a production-oriented recovery program as the restoration of flood-affected lands. We then model an external assistance program as the acquisition of all food aid necessary to attain the United Nations organizations' estimates of minimum human needs. The trade-oriented recovery program is modeled as a relaxation of agricultural import quotas and the importation of food on commercial terms. Finally, we model a systemic reform program as the elimination of quantitative restrictions on all external trade.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by University of Chicago Press in its journal Economic Development and Cultural Change.

Volume (Year): 49 (2001)
Issue (Month): 4 (July)
Pages: 741-67

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Handle: RePEc:ucp:ecdecc:v:49:y:2001:i:4:p:741-67

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References

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  1. Noland, Marcus & Robinson, Sherman & Wang, Tao, 2000. "Rigorous Speculation: The Collapse and Revival of the North Korean Economy," World Development, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 28(10), pages 1767-1787, October.
  2. Stephen Coate, 1987. "Cash Versus Direct Food Relief," Discussion Papers, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science 724R, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  3. Robinson, Sherman & Cattaneo, Andrea & El-Said, Moataz, 1998. "Estimating a social accounting matrix using cross entropy methods:," TMD discussion papers, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) 33, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  4. Golan, Amos & Judge, George G. & Miller, Douglas, 1996. "Maximum Entropy Econometrics," Staff General Research Papers, Iowa State University, Department of Economics 1488, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  5. Marcus Noland & Sherman Robinson & Li-Gang Liu, 1997. "The Economics of Korean Unification," Working Paper Series, Peterson Institute for International Economics WP97-5, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  6. Golan, Amos & Judge, George & Robinson, Sherman, 1994. "Recovering Information from Incomplete or Partial Multisectoral Economic Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(3), pages 541-49, August.
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Cited by:
  1. Marcus Noland, 2003. "Famine and Reform in North Korea," Working Paper Series, Peterson Institute for International Economics WP03-5, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  2. Stephan Haggard & Marcus Noland, 2008. "Famine in North Korea Redux?," Working Paper Series, Peterson Institute for International Economics WP08-9, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  3. Sumie Sato & Mototsugu Fukushige, 2007. "The End of Import-Led Growth? North Korean Evidence," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics and Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP) 07-38, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics and Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP).
  4. Sato, Sumie & Fukushige, Mototsugu, 2011. "The North Korean economy: Escape from import-led growth," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 76-83, February.
  5. Chang, Yoonok & Haggard, Stephan & Noland, Marcus, 2009. "Exit polls: Refugee assessments of North Korea's transition," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 144-150, March.
  6. Plümper, Thomas & Neumayer, Eric, 2009. "Famine Mortality, Rational Political Inactivity, and International Food Aid," World Development, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 50-61, January.
  7. MoonJoong Tcha & Fiona Lio, 2002. "An Analysis of Food Aid and Altruism," Economics Discussion / Working Papers, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics 02-19, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.

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