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Rigorous Speculation: The Collapse and Revival of the North Korean Economy

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  • Marcus Noland

    ()
    (Peterson Institute for International Economics)

  • Sherman Robinson

    (Peterson Institute for International Economics)

  • Tao Wang

    (Peterson Institute for International Economics)

Abstract

In this paper we use cross-entropy estimation techniques to construct the underlying data base for a computable general equilibrium model (CGE) of the North Korean economy, starting from incomplete data ridden with gross measurement errors. The cross-entropy estimation approach is powerful and flexible, allowing us to make full use of what information we have in whatever form. CGE modeling forces internal consistency. The end product is a model that incorporates fragmentary information in a rigorous way and allows us to examine the implications of a number of alternative scenarios including rehabilitation of flood-affected lands, liberalization of the international trade regime, and military demobilization.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Peterson Institute for International Economics in its series Working Paper Series with number WP99-1.

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Date of creation: 1999
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Handle: RePEc:iie:wpaper:wp99-1

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References

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  1. Golan, Amos & Judge, George & Robinson, Sherman, 1994. "Recovering Information from Incomplete or Partial Multisectoral Economic Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(3), pages 541-49, August.
  2. Marcus Noland & Sherman Robinson & Tao Wang, 1999. "Modeling Korean Unification," Working Paper Series WP99-7, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  3. Dyck, I J Alexander, 1997. "Privatization in Eastern Germany: Management Selection and Economic Transition," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(4), pages 565-97, September.
  4. Marcus Noland, 2000. "Avoiding the Apocalypse: The Future of the Two Koreas," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 94.
  5. Marcus Noland & Sherman Robinson & Ligang Liu, 1999. "The economics of korean unification," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(3), pages 255-299.
  6. Easterly, William & Fischer, Stanley & DEC, 1994. "The Soviet economic decline : historical and republican data," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1284, The World Bank.
  7. Noland, Marcus, 1990. "Prospective changes in Japan's trade pattern," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 211-238, September.
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Cited by:
  1. Marcus Noland & Sherman Robinson & Tao Wang, 1999. "Famine in North Korea: Causes and Cures," Working Paper Series WP99-2, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  2. Marcus Noland & Sherman Robinson & Tao Wang, 1999. "Modeling Korean Unification," Working Paper Series WP99-7, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  3. Sato, Sumie & Fukushige, Mototsugu, 2011. "The North Korean economy: Escape from import-led growth," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 76-83, February.
  4. Kim, Byung-Yeon & Kim, Suk Jin & Lee, Keun, 2007. "Assessing the economic performance of North Korea, 1954-1989: Estimates and growth accounting analysis," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 564-582, September.
  5. Sumie Sato & Mototsugu Fukushige, 2007. "The End of Import-Led Growth? North Korean Evidence," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 07-38, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics and Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP).
  6. Marcus Noland, 2004. "Famine and Reform in North Korea," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 3(2), pages 1-40.

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