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Famine in North Korea Redux?

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Author Info

  • Stephan Haggard

    ()
    (University of California, San Diego)

  • Marcus Noland

    ()
    (East-West Center & Peterson Institute of International Economics)

Abstract

In the 1990s, 600,000-1 million North Koreans, or about 3-5 percent of the pre-crisis population perished in one of the worst famines of the 20th century. North Korea is once again poised on the brink of famine. Although the renewed provision of aid is likely to avert a disaster on the scale of the 1990s, hunger-related deaths are already occurring and a dynamic has been set in motion that will carry the crisis into 2009. North Korea is a complex humanitarian emergency characterized by highly imperfect information. This paper triangulates quantity and price evidence with direct observation to assess food insecurity in North Korea and its causes. We critique the widely-cited UN figures and present original data on grain quantities and prices. These data demonstrate that for the first time since the 1990s famine, the aggregate grain balance has gone into deficit. Prices have also risen steeply. The re-emergence of pathologies from the famine era is documented through direct observation. Although exogenous shocks have played a role, foreign and domestic policy choices have been key.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by East-West Center, Economics Study Area in its series Economics Study Area Working Papers with number 97.

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Length: pages 36
Date of creation: Oct 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ewc:wpaper:wp97

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References

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  1. Marcus Noland, 2004. "Korea after Kim Jong-il," Peterson Institute Press: Policy Analyses in International Economics, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number pa71, November.
  2. Marcus Noland, 2004. "Famine and Reform in North Korea," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 3(2), pages 1-40.
  3. Stephan Haggard & Marcus Noland & Erik Weeks, 2008. "North Korea on the Precipice of Famine," Policy Briefs PB08-6, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  4. Marcus Noland, 2000. "Avoiding the Apocalypse: The Future of the Two Koreas," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 94.
  5. Marcus Noland & Sherman Robinson & Tao Wang, 1999. "Famine in North Korea: Causes and Cures," Working Paper Series WP99-2, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  6. Kim, Woon Keun & Lee, Hyunok & Sumner, Daniel A, 1998. "Assessing the Food Situation in North Korea," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 46(3), pages 519-35, April.
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Cited by:
  1. Stephan Haggard & Marcus Noland, 2009. "The Political Economy of North Korea: Implications for Denuclearization and Proliferation," Economics Study Area Working Papers 104, East-West Center, Economics Study Area.
  2. Haggard, Stephan & Lee, Jennifer & Noland, Marcus, 2012. "Integration in the absence of institutions: China–North Korea cross-border exchange," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 130-145.
  3. Noland, Marcus & Haggard, Stephan, 2010. "Political attitudes under repression: evidence from North Korean refugees," MPRA Paper 21713, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Cullen S. Hendrix, 2011. "Markets vs. Malthus: Food Security and the Global Economy," Policy Briefs PB11-12, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  5. Yoonok Chang & Stephan Haggard & Marcus Noland, 2008. "Exit Polls: Refugee Assessments of North Korea's Transition," Working Paper Series WP08-1, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  6. Stephan Haggard & Marcus Noland, 2010. "The Winter of Their Discontent: Pyongyang Attacks the Market," Policy Briefs PB10-1, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  7. Stephan Haggard & Marcus Noland, 2009. "Reform from Below: Behavioral and Institutional Change in North Korea," Working Paper Series WP09-8, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  8. Stephan Haggard & Marcus Noland & Erik Weeks, 2008. "North Korea on the Precipice of Famine," Policy Briefs PB08-6, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  9. Wintrobe , Ronald, 2013. "The Logic of the North Korean Dictatorship," NEPS Working Papers 5/2013, Network of European Peace Scientists.
  10. Wintrobe Ronald, 2013. "North Korea as a Military Dictatorship," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 19(3), pages 459-471, December.
  11. Stephen Devereux, 2009. "Why does famine persist in Africa?," The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 25-35, February.
  12. Stephan Haggard & Marcus Noland, 2007. "North Korea’s External Economic Relations," Working Paper Series WP07-7, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  13. David Shim, 2010. "How Signifying Practices Constitute Food (In)security The Case of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea," GIGA Working Paper Series 122, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies.
  14. Paul Hare, 2012. "North Korea: Building the Institutions to Raise Living Standards," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(3), pages 487-509, September.
  15. Noland, Marcus & Haggard, Stephan, 2009. "Repression and punishment in North Korea: survey evidence of prison camp experiences," MPRA Paper 17705, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  16. Marcus Noland & Stephan Haggard, 2012. "Networks, Trust, and Trade: The Microeconomics of China–North Korea Integration," Working Paper Series WP12-8, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  17. Byung-Yeon Kim & Gerard Roland, 2011. "Are the Markets Afraid of Kim Jong-Il?," KIER Working Papers 789, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.

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