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Predicting the Construction of New Highway Links

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Author Info

  • David Levinson

    ()
    (Nexus (Networks, Economics, and Urban Systems) Research Group, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Minnesota)

  • Ramachandra Karamalaputi

Abstract

This paper examines new highway construction based on the status of the network, traffic demand, project costs, and budget constraints. The data span two decades and consist of descriptions of physical attributes of the network, the construction and expansion history, and average annual daily traffic values on each of the links. An algorithm is developed to designate adjacent and parallel links in a large network. A nonlinear cost model for new construction and highway expansion is developed for the Minneapolis-St. Paul metropolitan area. Results show that new links providing greater potential access are more likely to be constructed and that more links will be constructed when the budget is larger, which supports the underlying economic theory. The models developed here have important implications for planning and forecasting, allowing us to predict how networks might be altered in the future in response to changing conditions. .

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File URL: http://nexus.umn.edu/Papers/NewConstruction.pdf
File Function: First version, 2007
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group in its series Working Papers with number 200305.

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Date of creation: 2003
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Journal of Transportation and Statistics Vol. 6(2/3) 81-89
Handle: RePEc:nex:wpaper:newconstruction

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Postal: Dept. of Civil Engineering, 500 Pillsbury Drive SE, Minneapolis, MN 55455
Phone: +01 (612) 625-6354
Fax: +01 (612) 626-7750
Web page: http://nexus.umn.edu
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References

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  1. David Levinson & Ramachandra Karamalaputi, 2003. "Induced Supply: A Model of Highway Network Expansion at the Microscopic Level," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, London School of Economics and University of Bath, vol. 37(3), pages 297-318, September.
  2. Pavithra Parthasarathi & David M. Levinson & Ramachandra Karamalaputi, 2003. "Induced Demand: A Microscopic Perspective," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 40(7), pages 1335-1351, June.
  3. Brownstone, David & Train, Kenneth, 1999. "Forecasting new product penetration with flexible substitution patterns," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt1j6814b3, University of California Transportation Center.
  4. Bhanu Yerra & David Levinson, 2005. "The Emergence of Hierarchy in Transportation Networks," Working Papers 200507, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.
  5. Daniel McFadden & Kenneth Train, 2000. "Mixed MNL models for discrete response," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(5), pages 447-470.
  6. David Hensher, 2001. "The valuation of commuter travel time savings for car drivers: evaluating alternative model specifications," Transportation, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 101-118, May.
  7. David Levinson & Seshasai Kanchi, 2002. "Road Capacity and the Allocation of Time," Working Papers 200203, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.
  8. Noland, Robert B., 2001. "Relationships between highway capacity and induced vehicle travel," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 47-72, January.
  9. Bhat, Chandra R., 2001. "Quasi-random maximum simulated likelihood estimation of the mixed multinomial logit model," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 677-693, August.
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Cited by:
  1. Irene Casas & Amit Malik & Eric Delmelle & Mark Karwan & Rajan Batta, 2007. "An Automated Network Generation Procedure for Routing of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) in a GIS Environment," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 153-176, June.

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