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Uncovering the Distribution of Motorists' Preferences for Travel Time and Reliability: Implications for Road Pricing

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Author Info

  • Small, Kenneth A
  • Winston, Clifford
  • Yan, Jia

Abstract

Recent econometric advances have made it possible to empirically identify the varied nature of consumers' preferences. We apply these advances to study commuters' preferences for speedy and reliable highway travel with the objective of exploring efficiency and distributional effects of road pricing that accounts for users' heterogeneity. Our analysis combines revealed and stated commuter choices of whether to pay a toll for congestion-free express travel or to travel free on regular congested roads. We find that highway users exhibit substantial heterogeneity in their values of travel time and reliability. Moreover, we show that road pricing policies that cater to varying preferences can substantially increase efficiency while maintaining the political feasibility exhibited by current experiments. By recognizing heterogeneity, policymakers may break the current impasse in efforts to relieve highway congestion.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of California Transportation Center in its series University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers with number qt8zd2r34k.

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Date of creation: 01 Aug 2002
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Handle: RePEc:cdl:uctcwp:qt8zd2r34k

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Related research

Keywords: mixed logit; stated preference; congestion pricing; product differentiation; heterogeneous consumers; Social and Behavioral Sciences;

References

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  1. Brownstone, David & Train, Kenneth, 1999. "Forecasting new product penetration with flexible substitution patterns," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt3tb6j874, University of California Transportation Center.
  2. Lee, Lung-Fei, 1992. "On Efficiency of Methods of Simulated Moments and Maximum Simulated Likelihood Estimation of Discrete Response Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(04), pages 518-552, December.
  3. Vuong, Quang H, 1989. "Likelihood Ratio Tests for Model Selection and Non-nested Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 307-33, March.
  4. Bhat, Chandra R. & Castelar, Saul, 2002. "A unified mixed logit framework for modeling revealed and stated preferences: formulation and application to congestion pricing analysis in the San Francisco Bay area," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 593-616, August.
  5. Clifford Winston, 1998. "U.S. Industry Adjustment to Economic Deregulation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(3), pages 89-110, Summer.
  6. Daniel McFadden & Kenneth Train, 2000. "Mixed MNL models for discrete response," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(5), pages 447-470.
  7. Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
  8. Bhat, Chandra R., 2001. "Quasi-random maximum simulated likelihood estimation of the mixed multinomial logit model," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 677-693, August.
  9. John Calfee & Clifford Winston & Randolph Stempski, 2001. "Econometric Issues In Estimating Consumer Preferences From Stated Preference Data: A Case Study Of The Value Of Automobile Travel Time," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(4), pages 699-707, November.
  10. Calfee, John & Winston, Clifford, 1998. "The value of automobile travel time: implications for congestion policy," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 83-102, July.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Steimetz, Seiji S.C. & Brownstone, David, 2004. "Estimating Commuters’ “Value of Time†with Noisy Data: a Multiple Imputation Approach," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt52g9r2sd, University of California Transportation Center.
  2. Snarr, Hal W. & Axelsen, Dan, 2007. "Accounting for peak shifting in traditional cost-benefit analysis," MPRA Paper 37060, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. David Hensher, 2006. "The Signs of the Times: Imposing a Globally Signed Condition on Willingness to Pay Distributions," Transportation, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 205-222, 05.
  4. Brownstone, David & Steimetz, Seiji S. C., 2004. "Estimating Commuters’ “Value of Time†with Noisy Data: a Multiple Imputation Approach," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt6s78c7rt, University of California Transportation Center.
  5. Brownstone, David & Small, Kenneth A., 2005. "Valuing time and reliability: assessing the evidence from road pricing demonstrations," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 279-293, May.
  6. Sándor, Zsolt & Train, Kenneth, 2004. "Quasi-random simulation of discrete choice models," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 313-327, May.
  7. Vega, Amaya & Reynolds-Feighan, Aisling, 2009. "A methodological framework for the study of residential location and travel-to-work mode choice under central and suburban employment destination patterns," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 43(4), pages 401-419, May.
  8. Steimetz, Seiji S.C. & Brownstone, David, 2005. "Estimating commuters' "value of time" with noisy data: a multiple imputation approach," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 39(10), pages 865-889, December.
  9. Liu, Henry X. & Recker, Will & Chen, Anthony, 2004. "Uncovering the contribution of travel time reliability to dynamic route choice using real-time loop data," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 435-453, July.
  10. Steimetz, Siji S.C. & Brownstone, David, 2004. "Estimating Commuters' "Value of Time" and Noisy Data: a Multiple Imputation Approach," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt4qh7m2d0, University of California Transportation Center.

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