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Estimation of the time-dependency of values of travel time and its reliability from loop detector data

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  • Liu, Henry X.
  • He, Xiaozheng
  • Recker, Will
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    Abstract

    Although the effects of travel time and its reliability have been addressed in a variety of papers concerning pricing policies, most of the existing research is based on the assumption that travelers' preferences are static over a given time interval, such as the morning commuting period. Here, we relax this assumption, assuming rather that travelers' tastes toward the travel time and its reliability vary with time, and examine their time-dependent effects on traveler's route choice decisions. We adopt a mixed logit formulation of route choice behavior as a function of travel time, reliability, and cost. To uncover the values of travel time and its reliability, we introduce an alternative approach to the use of traveler surveys to estimate the model coefficients by determining the parameter set that produces the best match between the aggregated results from the travelers' route choice model and the observed time-dependent traffic volume data from loop detectors. We apply the methodology to loop detector data obtained from the California State Route 91 value-pricing project, and use a genetic algorithm to identify the parameters. The time-dependent values of travel time and values of reliability for the morning commuting period are estimated and their implications on the toll pricing policy are discussed. The results indicate that, under the time-dependent formulation, travel-time savings may be more important than uncertain travel time when departure time is close to such time constraints as work-start time.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Transportation Research Part B: Methodological.

    Volume (Year): 41 (2007)
    Issue (Month): 4 (May)
    Pages: 448-461

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:transb:v:41:y:2007:i:4:p:448-461

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    References

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    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    1. Sándor, Zsolt & Train, Kenneth, 2004. "Quasi-random simulation of discrete choice models," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 313-327, May.
    2. Kenneth Train, 2003. "Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation," Online economics textbooks, SUNY-Oswego, Department of Economics, number emetr2, Spring.
    3. Bhat, Chandra R., 2003. "Simulation estimation of mixed discrete choice models using randomized and scrambled Halton sequences," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 837-855, November.
    4. Small, Kenneth A. & Winston, Clifford & Yan, Jia, 2005. "Uncovering the Distribution of Motorists' Preferences for Travel Time and Reliability," Working paper 179, Regulation2point0.
    5. Bhat, Chandra R., 2001. "Quasi-random maximum simulated likelihood estimation of the mixed multinomial logit model," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 677-693, August.
    6. Jiang, Meilan & Morikawa, Takayuki, 2004. "Theoretical analysis on the variation of value of travel time savings," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 551-571, October.
    7. Liu, Henry X. & Recker, Will & Chen, Anthony, 2004. "Uncovering the contribution of travel time reliability to dynamic route choice using real-time loop data," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 435-453, July.
    8. Sándor, Z. & Train, K., 2004. "Quasi-random simulation of discrete choice models," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2004-51, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    9. Hess, Stephane & Bierlaire, Michel & Polak, John W., 2005. "Estimation of value of travel-time savings using mixed logit models," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 39(2-3), pages 221-236.
    10. Hess, Stephane & Train, Kenneth E. & Polak, John W., 2006. "On the use of a Modified Latin Hypercube Sampling (MLHS) method in the estimation of a Mixed Logit Model for vehicle choice," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 147-163, February.
    11. Daniel McFadden & Kenneth Train, 2000. "Mixed MNL models for discrete response," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(5), pages 447-470.
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    Cited by:
    1. Tseng, Yin-Yen & Verhoef, Erik T., 2008. "Value of time by time of day: A stated-preference study," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 42(7-8), pages 607-618, August.
    2. Carlos Carrion & David Levinson, 2010. "Value of Travel Time Reliability: A review of current evidence," Working Papers 000085, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.
    3. Hongcheng Gan & Yang Bai, 2014. "The effect of travel time variability on route choice decision: a generalized linear mixed model based analysis," Transportation, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 339-350, March.
    4. Yin-yen Tseng & Erik Verhoef, 2007. "Value of Time by Time of Day: A Stated-Preference Study," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 07-061/3, Tinbergen Institute, revised 08 Nov 2007.
    5. Gardner, Lauren M. & Boyles, Stephen D. & Waller, S. Travis, 2011. "Quantifying the benefit of responsive pricing and travel information in the stochastic congestion pricing problem," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 204-218, March.

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