Pavithra Parthasarathi David Levinson () (Nexus (Networks, Economics, and Urban Systems) Research Group, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Minnesota)
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This research evaluates the accuracy of demand forecasts using a sample of recently-completed projects in Minnesota and identiÞes the factors inßuencing the inaccuracy in forecasts. The forecast traffic data for this study is drawn from Environmental Impact Statements(EIS), Transportation Analysis Reports (TAR) and other forecast reports produced by the Minnesota Department of Transportation (Mn/DOT) with a horizon forecast year of 2010 or earlier. The actual traffic data is compiled from the database of traffic counts maintained by the Office of Traffic Forecasting and Analysis section at Mn/DOT. Based on recent research on forecast accuracy, the (in)accuracy of traffic forecasts is estimated as a ratio of the forecast traffic to the actual traffic. The estimation of forecast (in)accuracy also involves a comparison of the socioeconomic and demographic assumptions, the assumed networks to the actual in-place networks and other travel behavior assumptions that went into generating the traffic forecasts against actual conditions. The analysis indicates a general trend of underestimation in roadway traffic forecasts with factors such as highway type, functional classiÞcation, direction playing an inßuencing role. Roadways with higher volumes and higher functional classiÞcations such as freeways are subject to underestimation compared to lower volume roadways/functional classiÞcations. The comparison of demographic forecasts shows a trend of overestimation while the comparison of travel behavior characteristics indicates a lack of incorporation of fundamental shifts and societal changes.
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Paper provided by University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group in its series Working Papers with number
000042.
Length: Date of creation: 2008 Date of revision: Publication status: Published in working paper Handle: RePEc:nex:wpaper:forecastaccuracy
Contact details of provider: Postal: Dept. of Civil Engineering, 500 Pillsbury Drive SE, Minneapolis, MN 55455 Phone: +01 (612) 625-6354 Fax: +01 (612) 626-7750 Web page: http://nexus.umn.edu More information through EDIRC
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