Post-Construction Evaluation of Traffic Forecast Accuracy
AbstractThis research evaluates the accuracy of demand forecasts using a sample of recently-completed projects in Minnesota and identiÞes the factors inßuencing the inaccuracy in forecasts. The forecast traffic data for this study is drawn from Environmental Impact Statements(EIS), Transportation Analysis Reports (TAR) and other forecast reports produced by the Minnesota Department of Transportation (Mn/DOT) with a horizon forecast year of 2010 or earlier. The actual traffic data is compiled from the database of traffic counts maintained by the Office of Traffic Forecasting and Analysis section at Mn/DOT. Based on recent research on forecast accuracy, the (in)accuracy of traffic forecasts is estimated as a ratio of the forecast traffic to the actual traffic. The estimation of forecast (in)accuracy also involves a comparison of the socioeconomic and demographic assumptions, the assumed networks to the actual in-place networks and other travel behavior assumptions that went into generating the traffic forecasts against actual conditions. The analysis indicates a general trend of underestimation in roadway traffic forecasts with factors such as highway type, functional classiÞcation, direction playing an inßuencing role. Roadways with higher volumes and higher functional classiÞcations such as freeways are subject to underestimation compared to lower volume roadways/functional classiÞcations. The comparison of demographic forecasts shows a trend of overestimation while the comparison of travel behavior characteristics indicates a lack of incorporation of fundamental shifts and societal changes.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group in its series Working Papers with number 201005.
Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Transport Policy 17 (2010) p. 428-443.
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Dept. of Civil Engineering, 500 Pillsbury Drive SE, Minneapolis, MN 55455
Phone: +01 (612) 625-6354
Fax: +01 (612) 626-7750
Web page: http://nexus.umn.edu
More information through EDIRC
Minnesota; Minneapolis; Travel Demand Model; Transportation Planning; Forecasting;
Other versions of this item:
- Parthasarathi, Pavithra & Levinson, David, 2010. "Post-construction evaluation of traffic forecast accuracy," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 428-443, November.
- R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion
- R48 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Government Pricing and Policy
- D63 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2008-08-14 (All new papers)
- NEP-FOR-2008-08-14 (Forecasting)
- NEP-GEO-2008-08-14 (Economic Geography)
- NEP-PPM-2008-08-14 (Project, Program & Portfolio Management)
- NEP-URE-2008-08-14 (Urban & Real Estate Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Gerard Jong & Andrew Daly & Marits Pieters & Stephen Miller & Ronald Plasmeijer & Frank Hofman, 2007. "Uncertainty in traffic forecasts: literature review and new results for The Netherlands," Transportation, Springer, vol. 34(4), pages 375-395, July.
- Kang-tsung Chang & Zaher Khatib & Yanmei Ou, 2002. "Effects of zoning structure and network detail on traffic demand modeling," Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 29(1), pages 37-52, January.
- Hugosson, Muriel Beser, 2005. "Quantifying uncertainties in a national forecasting model," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 531-547, July.
- Yong Zhao & Kara Maria Kockelman, 2002. "The propagation of uncertainty through travel demand models: An exploratory analysis," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 145-163.
- Noland, Robert B., 2001. "Relationships between highway capacity and induced vehicle travel," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 47-72, January.
- Flyvbjerg, Bent, 2005. "Measuring inaccuracy in travel demand forecasting: methodological considerations regarding ramp up and sampling," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 522-530, July.
- Sanko, Nobuhiro & Morikawa, Takayuki & Nagamatsu, Yoshitaka, 2013. "Post-project evaluation of travel demand forecasts: Implications from the case of a Japanese railway," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 209-218.
- Maria Börjesson & Jonas Eliasson & Mattias Lundberg, 2014.
"Is CBA Ranking of Transport Investments Robust?,"
Journal of Transport Economics and Policy,
London School of Economics and University of Bath, vol. 48(2), pages 189-204, May.
- Vij, Akshay & Walker, Joan L., 2014. "Preference endogeneity in discrete choice models," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 90-105.
- Eliasson, Jonas & Börjesson, Maria & van Amelsfort, Dirk & Brundell-Freij, Karin & Engelson, Leonid, 2013.
"Accuracy of congestion pricing forecasts,"
Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice,
Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 34-46.
- Pavithra Parthasarathi & David Levinson & Hartwig Hochmair, 2012. "Network Structure and Travel Time Perception," Working Papers 000102, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.
- Odeck, James, 2013. "How accurate are national road traffic growth-rate forecasts?—The case of Norway," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 102-111.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (David Levinson).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.