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Traffic forecast inaccuracy in transportation: a literature review of roads and railways projects

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  • Carlos Oliveira Cruz

    (Universidade de Lisboa)

  • Joaquim Miranda Sarmento

    (Universidade de Lisboa)

Abstract

The inaccuracy of traffic forecasts has long stood as a central research theme in the field of infrastructure and transportation studies. The literature presents several motives for this phenomenon, ranging from a political bias, insufficient technical preparation, changing urban patterns, and economic dynamics. Uncertainty due to the inaccuracy of forecasts can have a profound impact on the infrastructure development process, right through from the preliminary studies up until the operation and re-negotiation of contracts (in cases when projects are developed using a concessions model). This paper provides an extensive systematic review of forecast inaccuracy in roads and railways projects (analyzing trends, causes, and results). The research found that: (1) forecasts in rail projects are generally more optimistic than in road projects; (2) over the last couple of decades the accuracy of forecasts has not improved significantly, and; (3) there has been a generalized ramp-up effect in forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos Oliveira Cruz & Joaquim Miranda Sarmento, 2020. "Traffic forecast inaccuracy in transportation: a literature review of roads and railways projects," Transportation, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 1571-1606, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:transp:v:47:y:2020:i:4:d:10.1007_s11116-019-09972-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s11116-019-09972-y
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    Cited by:

    1. Einat Tenenboim & Nira Munichor & Yoram Shiftan, 2023. "Justifying toll payment with biased travel time estimates: Behavioral findings and route choice modeling," Transportation, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 477-511, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Traffic forecast; Forecast inaccuracy; Optimism bias; Systematic review; Strategic behaviour; Roads; Railways;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H54 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Infrastructures
    • J68 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Public Policy
    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise
    • R42 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Government and Private Investment Analysis; Road Maintenance; Transportation Planning

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