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Post-construction evaluation of traffic forecast accuracy

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  • Parthasarathi, Pavithra
  • Levinson, David

Abstract

This research evaluates the accuracy of demand forecasts using a sample of recently-completed projects in Minnesota and identifies the factors influencing the inaccuracy in forecasts. Based on recent research on forecast accuracy, the inaccuracy of traffic forecasts is estimated as the difference between forecast traffic and actual traffic, standardized by the actual traffic. The analysis indicates a general trend of underestimation in roadway traffic forecasts with factors such as roadway type, functional classification and direction playing an influencing role. Roadways with higher volumes and higher functional classifications such as freeways are underestimated compared to lower volume roadways and lower functional classifications. The comparison of demographic forecasts shows a trend of overestimation while the comparison of travel behavior characteristics indicates a lack of incorporation of fundamental shifts and societal changes.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Transport Policy.

Volume (Year): 17 (2010)
Issue (Month): 6 (November)
Pages: 428-443

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Handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:17:y:2010:i:6:p:428-443

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Keywords: Transportation demand forecasting Project evaluation Forecast accuracy Model evaluation;

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References

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  1. Flyvbjerg, Bent, 2005. "Measuring inaccuracy in travel demand forecasting: methodological considerations regarding ramp up and sampling," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 522-530, July.
  2. Noland, Robert B., 2001. "Relationships between highway capacity and induced vehicle travel," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 47-72, January.
  3. Yong Zhao & Kara Maria Kockelman, 2002. "The propagation of uncertainty through travel demand models: An exploratory analysis," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 145-163.
  4. Gerard Jong & Andrew Daly & Marits Pieters & Stephen Miller & Ronald Plasmeijer & Frank Hofman, 2007. "Uncertainty in traffic forecasts: literature review and new results for The Netherlands," Transportation, Springer, vol. 34(4), pages 375-395, July.
  5. Hugosson, Muriel Beser, 2005. "Quantifying uncertainties in a national forecasting model," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 531-547, July.
  6. Kang-tsung Chang & Zaher Khatib & Yanmei Ou, 2002. "Effects of zoning structure and network detail on traffic demand modeling," Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 29(1), pages 37-52, January.
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Cited by:
  1. Odeck, James, 2013. "How accurate are national road traffic growth-rate forecasts?—The case of Norway," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 102-111.
  2. Börjesson, Maria & Eliasson, Jonas & Lundberg, Mattias, 2012. "Is CBA ranking of transport investments robust?," Working papers in Transport Economics 2012:30, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI).
  3. Sanko, Nobuhiro & Morikawa, Takayuki & Nagamatsu, Yoshitaka, 2013. "Post-project evaluation of travel demand forecasts: Implications from the case of a Japanese railway," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 209-218.
  4. Eliasson, Jonas & Amelsfort, Dirk van & Börjesson, Maria & Brundell-Freij, Karin & Engelson, Leonid, 2012. "Accuracy of congestion pricing forecasts," Working papers in Transport Economics 2012:31, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI).
  5. Vij, Akshay & Walker, Joan L., 2014. "Preference endogeneity in discrete choice models," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 90-105.
  6. Pavithra Parthasarathi & David Levinson & Hartwig Hochmair, 2012. "Network Structure and Travel Time Perception," Working Papers 000102, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.

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