IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/trapol/v27y2013icp102-111.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

How accurate are national road traffic growth-rate forecasts?—The case of Norway

Author

Listed:
  • Odeck, James

Abstract

This paper evaluates the accuracy of the annual national road traffic growth-rate forecasts that are prepared by the Norwegian road authorities. The rationale for the study is the fact that national and regional traffic growth-rate forecasts are the basis for policy formation, and inaccurate forecasts may lead to inappropriate policies. The data correspond to the period of 1996–2008 whereas the forecasting models were revised in 2001. The results reveal the following: (1) traffic growth-rate forecasts were more inaccurate in the period before the revision as compared to the period after the revision and underestimation is most common; (2) the naïve growth-rate forecasts perform better than the official forecasts, but GDP growth-rate forecasts perform worse than the official forecasts; (3) the growth-rate forecasts are unbiased and efficient at the national level, but there are variations among regions and time periods. Overall, the Norwegian growth-rate forecast appears to perform fairly well in the short run, but the small inaccuracies that were observed may cause a problem in the long run, particularly in relation to the evaluation of the long-term effects of investments. We therefore advice that models need to be continually revised to accommodate more recent data such as international traffic and immigration which seem to greatly impact on the accuracy of models.

Suggested Citation

  • Odeck, James, 2013. "How accurate are national road traffic growth-rate forecasts?—The case of Norway," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 102-111.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:27:y:2013:i:c:p:102-111
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2012.12.003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0967070X12001953
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.tranpol.2012.12.003?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Parthasarathi, Pavithra & Levinson, David, 2010. "Post-construction evaluation of traffic forecast accuracy," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 428-443, November.
    2. Lars Lundqvist & Lars-Göran Mattsson (ed.), 2002. "National Transport Models," Advances in Spatial Science, Springer, number 978-3-662-04853-5, Fall.
    3. Flyvbjerg, Bent, 2005. "Measuring inaccuracy in travel demand forecasting: methodological considerations regarding ramp up and sampling," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 522-530, July.
    4. Holden, K & Peel, D A, 1990. "On Testing for Unbiasedness and Efficiency of Forecasts," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 58(2), pages 120-127, June.
    5. Tapio, Petri, 2005. "Towards a theory of decoupling: degrees of decoupling in the EU and the case of road traffic in Finland between 1970 and 2001," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 137-151, March.
    6. Granger, Clive W J, 1996. "Can We Improve the Perceived Quality of Economic Forecasts?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 455-473, Sept.-Oct.
    7. Daniel Jonsson & Svante Berglund & Peter Almström & Staffan Algers, 2011. "The Usefulness of Transport Models in Swedish Planning Practice," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(2), pages 251-265.
    8. Jonsson, Daniel & Berglund, Svante & Almström, Peter & Algers, Staffan, 2011. "The Usefulness of Transport Models in Swedish Planning Practice," Working papers in Transport Economics 2011:20, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI), revised 14 Dec 2011.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Odeck, James & Kjerkreit, Anne, 2019. "The accuracy of benefit-cost analyses (BCAs) in transportation: An ex-post evaluation of road projects," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 277-294.
    2. Andersson, Matts & Brundell-Freij, Karin & Eliasson, Jonas, 2017. "Validation of aggregate reference forecasts for passenger transport," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 101-118.
    3. Carlos Oliveira Cruz & Joaquim Miranda Sarmento, 2020. "Traffic forecast inaccuracy in transportation: a literature review of roads and railways projects," Transportation, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 1571-1606, August.
    4. Odeck, James & Welde, Morten, 2017. "The accuracy of toll road traffic forecasts: An econometric evaluation," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 73-85.
    5. Solvoll, Gisle & Mathisen, Terje Andreas & Welde, Morten, 2020. "Forecasting air traffic demand for major infrastructure changes," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    6. Andersson, Matts & Brundell-Freij, Karin & Eliasson, Jonas, 2016. "Validation of reference forecasts for passenger transport," Working papers in Transport Economics 2016:15, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI), revised 07 Jul 2016.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nicolaisen, Morten Skou & Næss, Petter, 2015. "Roads to nowhere: The accuracy of travel demand forecasts for do-nothing alternatives," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 57-63.
    2. Tessa Eikelboom & Ron Janssen, 2015. "Comparison of Geodesign Tools to Communicate Stakeholder Values," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 24(6), pages 1065-1087, November.
    3. Johan Nilsson Sommar & Christer Johansson & Boel Lövenheim & Anders Markstedt & Magnus Strömgren & Bertil Forsberg, 2020. "Potential Effects on Travelers’ Air Pollution Exposure and Associated Mortality Estimated for a Mode Shift from Car to Bicycle Commuting," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(20), pages 1-16, October.
    4. Moshe Givoni & Eda Beyazit & Yoram Shiftan, 2016. "The use of state-of-the-art transport models by policymakers – beauty in simplicity?," Planning Theory & Practice, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 385-404, July.
    5. Sanders, Dwight R. & Manfredo, Mark R. & Boris, Keith, 2008. "Accuracy and efficiency in the U.S. Department of Energy's short-term supply forecasts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 1192-1207, May.
    6. Almlöf, Erik & Nybacka, Mikael & Pernestål, Anna & Jenelius, Erik, 2022. "Will leisure trips be more affected than work trips by autonomous technology? Modelling self-driving public transport and cars in Stockholm, Sweden," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 1-19.
    7. Mills, Terence C. & Pepper, Gordon T., 1999. "Assessing the forecasters: an analysis of the forecasting records of the Treasury, the London Business School and the National Institute," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 247-257, July.
    8. Vuchelen, Jef & Gutierrez, Maria-Isabel, 2005. "A direct test of the information content of the OECD growth forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 103-117.
    9. Einat Tenenboim & Nira Munichor & Yoram Shiftan, 2023. "Justifying toll payment with biased travel time estimates: Behavioral findings and route choice modeling," Transportation, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 477-511, April.
    10. McLeod, Sam & Schapper, Jake H.M. & Curtis, Carey & Graham, Giles, 2019. "Conceptualizing freight generation for transport and land use planning: A review and synthesis of the literature," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 24-34.
    11. Sanders, Dwight R. & Manfredo, Mark R., 2002. "Usda Production Forecasts For Pork, Beef, And Broilers: An Evaluation," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 27(1), pages 1-14, July.
    12. Dopke, Jorg, 2001. "Macroeconomic forecasts and the nature of economic shocks in Germany," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 181-201.
    13. Strömgren, Magnus & Schantz, Peter & Sommar, Johan Nilsson & Raza, Wasif & Markstedt, Anders & Forsberg, Bertil, 2020. "Modeling commuter modal shift from car trips to cycling: Scenario construction and outcomes for Stockholm, Sweden," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    14. West , Jens & Börjesson , Maria & Engelson , Leonid, 2016. "Forecasting effects of congestion charges," Working papers in Transport Economics 2016:9, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI).
    15. Xie, Zixiong & Hsu, Shih-Hsun, 2016. "Time varying biases and the state of the economy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 716-725.
    16. Andersson, Matts & Brundell-Freij, Karin & Eliasson, Jonas, 2016. "Validation of reference forecasts for passenger transport," Working papers in Transport Economics 2016:15, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI), revised 07 Jul 2016.
    17. Jef Vuchelen & Maria-Isabel Gutierrez, 2005. "Do the OECD 24 month horizon growth forecasts for the G7-countries contain information?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(8), pages 855-862.
    18. Manzo, Stefano & Nielsen, Otto Anker & Prato, Carlo Giacomo, 2015. "How uncertainty in input and parameters influences transport model :output A four-stage model case-study," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 64-72.
    19. Sanders, Dwight R. & Manfredo, Mark R., 2003. "USDA Livestock Price Forecasts: A Comprehensive Evaluation," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 28(2), pages 1-19, August.
    20. Kappler, Marcus, 2007. "Projecting the Medium-Term: Outcomes and Errors for GDP Growth," ZEW Discussion Papers 07-068, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:27:y:2013:i:c:p:102-111. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/30473/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.