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Error and optimism bias in toll road traffic forecasts

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  • Robert Bain

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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11116-009-9199-7
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Springer in its journal Transportation.

    Volume (Year): 36 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 5 (September)
    Pages: 469-482

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    Handle: RePEc:kap:transp:v:36:y:2009:i:5:p:469-482

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    Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=103007

    Related research

    Keywords: Toll road; Traffic forecast; Optimism bias; Forecasting error;

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    Cited by:
    1. Massimo Florio & Silvia Vignetti, 2013. "The use of ex post Cost-Benefit Analysis to assess the long-term effects of Major Infrastructure Projects," Working Papers 201302, Centre for Industrial Studies (CSIL).
    2. Anna Matas & Josep-Lluis Raymond & Adriana Ruiz, 2012. "Traffic forecasts under uncertainty and capacity constraints," Transportation, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 1-17, January.
    3. Börjesson, Maria & Eliasson, Jonas & Lundberg, Mattias, 2012. "Is CBA ranking of transport investments robust?," Working papers in Transport Economics 2012:30, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI).
    4. Eliasson, Jonas & Amelsfort, Dirk van & Börjesson, Maria & Brundell-Freij, Karin & Engelson, Leonid, 2012. "Accuracy of congestion pricing forecasts," Working papers in Transport Economics 2012:31, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI).
    5. Welde, Morten, 2011. "Demand and operating cost forecasting accuracy for toll road projects," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 765-771, September.
    6. David Hartgen, 2013. "Hubris or humility? Accuracy issues for the next 50 years of travel demand modeling," Transportation, Springer, vol. 40(6), pages 1133-1157, November.
    7. Robin Lindsey & André De Palma, 2013. "Cost Recovery from Congestion Tolls with Long-run Uncertainty," Working Papers hal-00784299, HAL.
    8. Zinn, Jesse, 2013. "Modelling Biased Judgement with Weighted Updating," MPRA Paper 50310, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Matthew Ryan & Flavio Menezes, 2014. "Public-Private Partnerships for Transport Infrastructure: Some Efficiency Risks," Discussion Papers Series 499, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.

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