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Accuracy of congestion pricing forecasts

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  • Eliasson, Jonas
  • Börjesson, Maria
  • van Amelsfort, Dirk
  • Brundell-Freij, Karin
  • Engelson, Leonid

Abstract

This paper compares forecast effects of the Stockholm congestion charges with actual outcomes. The most important concerns during the design of the congestion charging scheme were the traffic reduction in bottlenecks, the increase in public transport ridership, the decrease of vehicle kilometres in the city centre, and potential traffic effects on circumferential roads. Comparisons of forecasts and actual outcomes show that the transport model predicted all of these factors well enough to allow planners to draw correct conclusions regarding the design and preparations for the scheme. The one major shortcoming was that the static assignment network model was unable to predict the substantial reductions of queuing times. We conclude that the transport model worked well enough to be useful as decision support, performing considerably better than unaided “experts’ judgments”, but that results must be interpreted taking the model’s limitations into account. The positive experiences from the Stockholm congestion charges hence seem to be transferable to other cities in the sense that if a charging system is forecast to have beneficial effects on congestion, then this is most likely true.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice.

Volume (Year): 52 (2013)
Issue (Month): C ()
Pages: 34-46

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Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:52:y:2013:i:c:p:34-46

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Related research

Keywords: Forecast accuracy; Congestion pricing; Model validation; Policy transfer;

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References

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  1. Lasse Fridstrøm & Harald Minken & Paavo Moilanen & Simon Shepherd & Arild Vold, 2000. "Economic and Equity Effects of Marginal Cost Pricing in Transport," Research Reports 71, Government Institute for Economic Research Finland (VATT).
  2. Eliasson, Jonas & Hultkrantz, Lars & Nerhagen, Lena & Rosqvist, Lena Smidfelt, 2009. "The Stockholm congestion - charging trial 2006: Overview of effects," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 240-250, March.
  3. Börjesson, Maria & Eliasson, Jonas & Hugosson, Muriel & Brundell-Freij, Karin, 2012. "The Stockholm congestion charges – five years on. Effects, acceptability and lessons learnt," Working papers in Transport Economics 2012:3, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI).
  4. Eliasson, Jonas, 2009. "A cost-benefit analysis of the Stockholm congestion charging system," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 43(4), pages 468-480, May.
  5. Börjesson, Maria & Eliasson, Jonas & Hugosson, Muriel B. & Brundell-Freij, Karin, 2012. "The Stockholm congestion charges—5 years on. Effects, acceptability and lessons learnt," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 1-12.
  6. Rich, Jeppe & Nielsen, Otto Anker, 2007. "A socio-economic assessment of proposed road user charging schemes in Copenhagen," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 330-345, July.
  7. DE PALMA, André & LINDSEY, Robin & NISKANEN, Esko, . "Policy insights from the urban road pricing case sudies," CORE Discussion Papers RP -1881, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  8. Karlström, Anders & Franklin, Joel P., 2009. "Behavioral adjustments and equity effects of congestion pricing: Analysis of morning commutes during the Stockholm Trial," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 283-296, March.
  9. Parthasarathi, Pavithra & Levinson, David, 2010. "Post-construction evaluation of traffic forecast accuracy," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 428-443, November.
  10. Jonathan Leape, 2006. "The London Congestion Charge," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(4), pages 157-176, Fall.
  11. Eliasson, Jonas, 2008. "Lessons from the Stockholm congestion charging trial," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 395-404, November.
  12. Bert van Wee, 2007. "Large infrastructure projects: a review of the quality of demand forecasts and cost estimations," Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 34(4), pages 611-625, July.
  13. Robert Bain, 2009. "Error and optimism bias in toll road traffic forecasts," Transportation, Springer, vol. 36(5), pages 469-482, September.
  14. Eliasson, Jonas & Jonsson, Lina, 2011. "The unexpected "yes": Explanatory factors behind the positive attitudes to congestion charges in Stockholm," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 636-647, August.
  15. Eliasson, Jonas & Mattsson, Lars-Göran, 2006. "Equity effects of congestion pricing: Quantitative methodology and a case study for Stockholm," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 40(7), pages 602-620, August.
  16. Börjesson, Maria & Kristoffersson, Ida, 2012. "Estimating welfare effects of congestion charges in real world settings," Working papers in Transport Economics 2012:13, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI).
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Cited by:
  1. Eliasson , Jonas, 2014. "The Stockholm congestion pricing syndrome: how congestion charges went from unthinkable to uncontroversial," Working papers in Transport Economics 2014:1, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI).

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