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The use of ex post Cost-Benefit Analysis to assess the long-term effects of Major Infrastructure Projects

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This paper draws and expands from a recent ex-post evaluation carried out for the European Commission aimed at assessing the long term effects produced by a sample of ten major infrastructures in the Transport and Environment sectors and interpreting the key determinants of the observed performance. This evaluation study offered a unique opportunity to draw conclusions on the value of performing ex-post evaluations and to test an innovative evaluation design combining cost-benefit analysis (CBA) with qualitative assessment and adopting a long-run perspective (30 years), which extends into both the past and the future, and requires a mix of retrospective and prospective analysis. This paper presents the potential of ex-post CBA to assess long term impacts of major infrastructure projects and discusses some methodological and institutional implications related to its use.

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Paper provided by Centre for Industrial Studies (CSIL) in its series Working Papers with number 201302.

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Length: 18 pages
Date of creation: 22 May 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mst:wpaper:201302

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Keywords: Cost-benefit analysis; Ex-post evaluation; Infrastructures;

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  1. Michela Cella & Massimo Florio, 2009. "Hierarchical contracting in grant decisions: ex-ante and ex-post evaluation in the context of the EURegional Policy," Working Papers 171, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Jun 2009.
  2. Bråthen, Svein & Hervik, Arild, 1997. "Strait crossings and economic development : Developing economic impact assessment by means of ex post analyses," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 193-200, October.
  3. Julie Pellegrin & Emanuela Sirtori, 2012. "Methodologies to assess the impact of infrastructure projects in international development evaluation," Working Papers 201202, Centre for Industrial Studies (CSIL).
  4. Massimo FLORIO, 2006. "Multi-government cost-benefit analysis: shadow prices and incentives," Departmental Working Papers 2006-37, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
  5. Massimo FLORIO & Silvia VIGNETTI, 2003. "Cost-benefit analysis of infrastructure projects in an enlarged European Union: an incentive-oriented approach," Departmental Working Papers 2003-13, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
  6. Jenkins, Glenn P, 1997. "Project Analysis and the World Bank," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 38-42, May.
  7. Robert Bain, 2009. "Error and optimism bias in toll road traffic forecasts," Transportation, Springer, vol. 36(5), pages 469-482, September.
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