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Strait crossings and economic development : Developing economic impact assessment by means of ex post analyses


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  • Bråthen, Svein
  • Hervik, Arild
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    There is widespread scepticism among politicians and authorities concerning CBA as a main instrument for decision-making. This may cause possible bias towards non-quantitative factors as decisive. The challenge is to improve the methological approach, carefully examining the real benefits for road users. One way of doing this is to develop ex post CBA to test how critical assumptions fit to reality. The focus of this paper is on ex post analyses carried out with five case studies in larger infrastructure projects to assess the economic profitability actually occurring from new infrastructure. There are substantial differences in benefits ex post compared with the ex ante analyses, mainly explained by a shift parameter in willingness to pay (WTP) for the improvements. These 'inconvenience costs' saved by the road users add to the traditional value-of-time benefits. The paper also examines the profitability of private versus public funding and ends up with some considerations on regional impacts of transport infrastructure. A short presentation of a pilot study from two of the fixed links to elicit the influence on local industry is given. Some informal results support the theory of forward and backward linkages from new economic geography.

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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Transport Policy.

    Volume (Year): 4 (1997)
    Issue (Month): 4 (October)
    Pages: 193-200

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:4:y:1997:i:4:p:193-200

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    1. Krugman, Paul & Venables, Anthony J., 1993. "Integration, Specialization and Adjustment," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 886, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. David Aschauer, 1988. "Is public expenditure productive?," Staff Memoranda, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago 88-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    3. Hulten, Charles R. & Schwab, Robert M., 1993. "Infrastructure Spending: Where Do We Go From Here?," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, National Tax Association, vol. 46(3), pages 261-73, September.
    4. Paul Krugman & Anthony Venables, 1993. "Integration, Specialization, and the Adjustment," NBER Working Papers 4559, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Berechman, Joseph, 1994. "Urban and regional economic impacts of transportation investment: A critical assessment and proposed methodology," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 351-362, July.
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    Cited by:
    1. Massimo Florio & Silvia Vignetti, 2013. "The use of ex post Cost-Benefit Analysis to assess the long-term effects of Major Infrastructure Projects," Working Papers, Centre for Industrial Studies (CSIL) 201302, Centre for Industrial Studies (CSIL).
    2. Mouter, Niek & Annema, Jan Anne & van Wee, Bert, 2013. "Ranking the substantive problems in the Dutch Cost–Benefit Analysis practice," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 241-255.
    3. Odeck, James & Bråthen, Svein, 2002. "Toll financing in Norway: The success, the failures and perspectives for the future," Transport Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 253-260, July.
    4. Louw, Erik & Leijten, Martijn & Meijers, Evert, 2013. "Changes subsequent to infrastructure investments: Forecasts, expectations and ex-post situation," Transport Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 107-117.


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