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Uncertainty in traffic forecasts: literature review and new results for The Netherlands

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Author Info

  • Gerard Jong

    ()

  • Andrew Daly
  • Marits Pieters
  • Stephen Miller
  • Ronald Plasmeijer
  • Frank Hofman
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    This paper provides a review of transport model applications that not only provide a central traffic forecast (or forecasts for a few scenarios), but also quantify the uncertainty in the traffic forecasts in the form of a confidence interval or related measures. Both uncertainty that results from using uncertain inputs (e.g. on income) and uncertainty in the model itself are treated. The paper goes on to describe the methods used and the results obtained for a case study in quantifying uncertainty in traffic forecasts in The Netherlands. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2007

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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11116-006-9110-8
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Springer in its journal Transportation.

    Volume (Year): 34 (2007)
    Issue (Month): 4 (July)
    Pages: 375-395

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    Handle: RePEc:kap:transp:v:34:y:2007:i:4:p:375-395

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    Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=103007

    Related research

    Keywords: Traffic forecasts; Travel demand; Uncertainty; Confidence interval; Simulation;

    References

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    1. Hugosson, Muriel Beser, 2005. "Quantifying uncertainties in a national forecasting model," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 531-547, July.
    2. Rodier, Caroline J. & Johnston, Robert A., 2002. "Uncertain socioeconomic projections used in travel demand and emissions models: could plausible errors result in air quality nonconformity?," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 613-631, August.
    3. Andrew Daly & James Fox & Jan Gerrit Tuinenga, 2005. "Pivot-Point Procedures in Practical Travel Demand Forecasting," ERSA conference papers ersa05p784, European Regional Science Association.
    4. Yong Zhao & Kara Maria Kockelman, 2002. "The propagation of uncertainty through travel demand models: An exploratory analysis," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 145-163.
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    Cited by:
    1. Pavithra Parthasarathi & David Levinson, 2008. "Post-Construction Evaluation of Traffic Forecast Accuracy," Working Papers 201005, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.

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