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Survival of the Fittest: The Impact of the Minimum Wage on Firm Exit

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  • Dara Lee Luca
  • Michael Luca

Abstract

We study the impact of the minimum wage on firm exit in the restaurant industry, exploiting recent changes in the minimum wage at the city level. We find that the impact of the minimum wage depends on whether a restaurant was already close to the margin of exit. Restaurants with lower ratings are closer to the margin of exit on average, and are disproportionately driven out of business by increases to the minimum wage. Our point estimates suggest that a one dollar increase in the minimum wage leads to a 10 percent increase in the likelihood of exit for a 3.5-star restaurant (which is the median rating on Yelp), but has no discernible impact for a 5-star restaurant (on a 1 to 5 star scale). We expand the analysis to look at prices using data from delivery orders, and find that lower rated restaurants also increase prices in response to minimum wage increases. Our analysis also highlights how digital data can be used to shed new light on labor policy and the economy.

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  • Dara Lee Luca & Michael Luca, 2019. "Survival of the Fittest: The Impact of the Minimum Wage on Firm Exit," NBER Working Papers 25806, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25806
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    Cited by:

    1. Jeffrey Clemens, 2021. "How Do Firms Respond to Minimum Wage Increases? Understanding the Relevance of Non-employment Margins," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 35(1), pages 51-72, Winter.
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    3. Jaerim Choi & Ivan Rivadeneyra & Kenia Ramirez, 2021. "Labor Market Effects of a Minimum Wage: Evidence from Ecuadorian Monthly Administrative Data," CESifo Working Paper Series 8987, CESifo.
    4. Sebastian Link, 2019. "The Price and Employment Response of Firms to the Introduction of Minimum Wages," CESifo Working Paper Series 7575, CESifo.
    5. Marchingiglio, Riccardo & Poyker, Michael, 2019. "The Employment Effects of Gender-Specific Minimum Wage," Working Papers 290, The University of Chicago Booth School of Business, George J. Stigler Center for the Study of the Economy and the State.
    6. Subir K. Chakrabarti & Srikant Devaraj & Pankaj C. Patel, 2021. "Minimum wage and restaurant hygiene violations: Evidence from Seattle," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(1), pages 85-99, January.
    7. Alexandre, F. & Bação, P. & Cerejeira, J. & Costa, H. & Portela, M., 2022. "Minimum wage and financially distressed firms: Another one bites the dust," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    8. Fone, Zachary S. & Sabia, Joseph J. & Cesur, Resul, 2023. "The unintended effects of minimum wage increases on crime," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    9. Elodie Andrieu & Malgorzata Kuczera, 2023. "Minimum Wage and Skills -Evidence from Job Vacancy Data," Working Papers 034, The Productivity Institute.
    10. Akgündüz, Yusuf Emre & Bağır, Yusuf Kenan & Cılasun, Seyit Mümin & Kırdar, Murat Güray, 2023. "Consequences of a massive refugee influx on firm performance and market structure," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    11. Winters, John V., 2022. "Minimum Wages and Restaurant Employment for Teens and Adults in Metropolitan and Non-metropolitan Areas," IZA Discussion Papers 15499, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. Yim, Hyejin & Katare, Bhagyashree & Cuffey, Joel, 2022. "Does Increasing Minimum Wage Impact Service Quality? Evidence from Restaurant Food Safety Inspections," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322411, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    13. Drucker, Lev & Mazirov, Katya & Neumark, David, 2021. "Who pays for and who benefits from minimum wage increases? Evidence from Israeli tax data on business owners and workers," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    14. Arindrajit Dube & Attila Lindner, 2021. "City Limits: What Do Local-Area Minimum Wages Do?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 35(1), pages 27-50, Winter.
    15. Sedov, Dmitry, 2022. "Restaurant closures during the COVID-19 pandemic: A descriptive analysis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    16. Dami'an Vergara, 2022. "Minimum Wages and Optimal Redistribution," Papers 2202.00839, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2022.
    17. Cumming, Fergus, 2022. "Mortgage cash-flows and employment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    18. Bai, Xue & Chatterjee, Arpita & Krishna, Kala & Ma, Hong, 2021. "Trade and minimum wages in general equilibrium: Theory and evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    19. Elliot Anenberg & Chun Kuang & Edward Kung, 2022. "Social learning and local consumption amenities: Evidence from Yelp," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(2), pages 294-322, June.
    20. Matthew T. Gustafson & Jason D. Kotter, 2023. "Higher Minimum Wages Reduce Capital Expenditures," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(5), pages 2933-2953, May.
    21. Baek, Jisun & Lee, Changkeun & Park, WooRam, 2021. "The impact of the minimum wage on the characteristics of new establishments: Evidence from South Korea," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    22. Devicienti, Francesco & Fanfani, Bernardo, 2021. "Firms' Margins of Adjustment to Wage Growth: The Case of Italian Collective Bargaining," IZA Discussion Papers 14532, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    23. Kong, Dongmin & Qin, Ni & Xiang, Junyi, 2021. "Minimum wage and entrepreneurship: Evidence from China," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 320-336.
    24. Dharmasankar, Sharada & Yoo, Hoyoung, 2023. "Assessing the main and spillover effects of Seattle's minimum wage on establishment decisions," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C81 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data; Data Access
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • J38 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Public Policy
    • L25 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Firm Performance

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