Time-To-Plan Lags for Commercial Construction Projects
AbstractWe use a large project-level dataset to estimate the length of the planning period for commercial construction projects in the United States. We find that these time-to-plan lags are long, averaging about 17 months when we aggregate the projects without regard to size and more than 28 months when we weight the projects by their construction cost. The full distribution of time-to-plan lags is very wide, and we relate this variation to the characteristics of the project and its location. In addition, we show that time-to-plan lags lengthened by 3 to 4 months, on average, over our sample period (1999 to 2010). Regulatory factors are associated with the variation in planning lags across locations, and we present anecdotal evidence that links at least some of the lengthening over time to heightened regulatory scrutiny.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 19408.
Date of creation: Sep 2013
Date of revision:
Note: DAE EFG ME PR
Contact details of provider:
Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Other versions of this item:
- Jonathan N. Millar & Stephen D. Oliner & Daniel E. Sichel, 2012. "Time-to plan lags for commercial construction projects," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-34, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Stephen D. Oliner & Jonathan N. Millar & Daniel E. Sichel, 2012. "Time-to-plan lags for commercial construction projects," Working Papers 36393, American Enterprise Institute.
- E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Capital; Investment; Capacity
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- L50 - Industrial Organization - - Regulation and Industrial Policy - - - General
- L74 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction - - - Construction
- R52 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Regional Government Analysis - - - Land Use and Other Regulations
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-09-26 (All new papers)
- NEP-MAC-2013-09-26 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-PPM-2013-09-26 (Project, Program & Portfolio Management)
- NEP-URE-2013-09-26 (Urban & Real Estate Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Huang, Haifang & Tang, Yao, 2012.
"Residential land use regulation and the US housing price cycle between 2000 and 2009,"
Journal of Urban Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 93-99.
- Huang, Haifang & Tang, Yao, 2010. "Residential Land Use Regulation and the US Housing Price Cycle Between 2000 and 2009," Working Papers 2010-11, University of Alberta, Department of Economics, revised 01 Nov 2010.
- Sumru Altug, 1986.
"Time to build and aggregate fluctuations: some new evidence,"
277, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Altug, Sumru, 1989. "Time-to-Build and Aggregate Fluctuations: Some New Evidence," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 30(4), pages 889-920, November.
- Albert Saiz, 2010. "The Geographic Determinants of Housing Supply," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 125(3), pages 1253-1296, August.
- Peeters, Marga, 1998.
" Persistence, Asymmetries and Interrelation in Factor Demand,"
Scandinavian Journal of Economics,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 100(4), pages 747-64, December.
- Peeters, Marga, 1998. "Persistence, asymmetries and interrelation in factor demand," MPRA Paper 23864, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Burge, Gregory & Ihlanfeldt, Keith, 2006. "Impact fees and single-family home construction," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 284-306, September.
- Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982.
"Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations,"
Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
- Finn E. Kydland & Edward C. Prescott, 1982. "Web interface for "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations"," QM&RBC Codes 4a, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
- Finn E. Kydland & Edward C. Prescott, 1982. "Executable program for "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations"," QM&RBC Codes 4, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
- Joseph Gyourko, 2009. "Housing Supply," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 295-318, 05.
- Ihlanfeldt, Keith R., 2007. "The effect of land use regulation on housing and land prices," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(3), pages 420-435, May.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Robert J. Vigfusson, 2001.
"Maximum likelihood in the frequency domain: the importance of time-to-plan,"
0106, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Christiano, Lawrence J. & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2003. "Maximum likelihood in the frequency domain: the importance of time-to-plan," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 789-815, May.
- Mayer, Christopher J. & Somerville, C. Tsuriel, 2000.
"Land use regulation and new construction,"
Regional Science and Urban Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 639-662, December.
- Gregory Burge & Keith Ihlanfeldt, 2006. "The Effects Of Impact Fees On Multifamily Housing Construction," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(1), pages 5-23.
- Quigley, John M. & Rosenthal, Larry A., 2005. "The Effects of Land-Use Regulation on the Price of Housing: What Do We Know? What Can We Learn?," Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy, Working Paper Series qt90m9g90w, Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy.
- Thomas Mayer, 1959. "Plant and Equiptment Lead Times," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 33, pages 127.
- Oliner, Stephen & Rudebusch, Glenn & Sichel, Daniel, 1995.
"New and Old Models of Business Investment: A Comparison of Forecasting Performance,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(3), pages 806-26, August.
- Stephen Oliner & Glenn Rudebusch & Daniel Sichel, 1993. "New and old models of business investment: a comparison of forecasting performance," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 141, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Saks, Raven E., 2008. "Job creation and housing construction: Constraints on metropolitan area employment growth," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 178-195, July.
- Alessandra Del Boca & Marzio Galeotti & Charles P. Himmelberg & Paola Rota, 2008. "Investment and Time to Plan and Build: A Comparison of Structures vs. Equipment in A Panel of Italian Firms," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(4), pages 864-889, 06.
- Palm, Franz C & Peeters, H M M & Pfann, G A, 1993. "Adjustment Costs and Time-to-Build in Factor Demand in the U.S. Manufacturing Industry," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 639-71.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.