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The Trend is the Cycle: Job Polarization and Jobless Recoveries

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  • Nir Jaimovich
  • Henry E. Siu

Abstract

Job polarization refers to the recent shrinking concentration of employment in occupations in the middle of the skill distribution. Jobless recoveries refers to the slow rebound in aggregate employment following recent recessions, despite recoveries in aggregate output. We show how these two phenomena are related. First, essentially all employment loss in middle-skill occupations occurs in economic downturns; in this sense, job polarization has an important cyclical component. Second, jobless recoveries in the aggregate are accounted for by jobless recoveries in the middle-skill occupations that are disappearing.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 18334.

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Date of creation: Aug 2012
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18334

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References

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  1. Erica L. Groshen & Simon Potter, 2003. "Has structural change contributed to a jobless recovery?," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 9(Aug).
  2. Firpo, Sergio & Fortin, Nicole M. & Lemieux, Thomas, 2011. "Occupational Tasks and Changes in the Wage Structure," IZA Discussion Papers 5542, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  3. Maarten Goos & Alan Manning, 2003. "Lousy and Lovely Jobs: the Rising Polarization of Work in Britain," CEP Discussion Papers dp0604, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
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  6. James Costain & Michael Reiter, 2005. "Business Cycles, Unemployment Insurance and the Calibration of Matching Models," Working Papers 215, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  7. Stacey L. Schreft & Aarti Singh, 2003. "A closer look at jobless recoveries," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q II, pages 45-73.
  8. David H. Autor & Frank Levy & Richard J. Murnane, 2001. "The Skill Content of Recent Technological Change: An Empirical Exploration," NBER Working Papers 8337, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Shigeru Fujita & Garey Ramey, 2009. "The Cyclicality Of Separation And Job Finding Rates," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(2), pages 415-430, 05.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Maliranta, Mika, 2013. "Globalization, occupational restructuring and firm performance," ETLA Working Papers 5, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
  2. Paul Beadry & Paul Beaudry & David A. Green & Ben Sand, 2013. "The great reversal in the demand for skill and cognitive tasks," STICERD - Public Economics Programme Discussion Papers 22, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
  3. Mandelman, Federico S., 2013. "Labor market polarization and international macroeconomic dynamics," Working Paper 2013-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  4. Christopher L. Foote & Richard W. Ryan, 2014. "Labor-Market Polarization Over the Business Cycle," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2014, Volume 29 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Holzer, Harry J. & Dunlop, Erin, 2013. "Just the Facts, Ma'am: Postsecondary Education and Labor Market Outcomes in the U.S," IZA Discussion Papers 7319, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  6. Jaison R. Abel & Richard Deitz, 2012. "Job polarization and rising inequality in the nation and the New York-northern New Jersey region," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 18(Oct).
  7. Consoli,Davide & Vona,Francesco & Rentocchini,Francesco, 2014. "That was then, this is now: Skills and Routinization in the 2000s," INGENIO (CSIC-UPV) Working Paper Series 201306, INGENIO (CSIC-UPV).
  8. Francis, Neville & Jackson, Laura E. & Owyang, Michael T., 2013. "Countercyclical policy and the speed of recovery after recessions," Working Papers 2013-032, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 01 Jan 2014.
  9. Aysegul Sahin & Stefania Albanesi, 2013. "Jobless Recoveries and Gender Biased Technological Change," 2013 Meeting Papers 985, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  10. Maria E. Canon & Mingyu Chen & Elise A. Marifian, 2013. "Labor mismatch in the Great Recession: a review of indexes using recent U.S. data," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 237-272.
  11. Hyatt, Henry R. & Spletzer, James R., 2013. "The Recent Decline in Employment Dynamics," IZA Discussion Papers 7231, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  12. Julie L. Hotchkiss & M. Melinda Pitts & Fernando Rios-Avila, 2012. "A closer look at nonparticipants during and after the Great Recession," Working Paper 2012-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  13. Andrei Zlate & Federico Mandelman, 2013. "Offshoring, Low-skilled Immigration and Labor Market Polarization," 2013 Meeting Papers 1073, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  14. Didem Tüzemen & Jonathan Willis, 2013. "The vanishing middle: job polarization and workers’ response to the decline in middle-skill jobs," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q I, pages 5-32.
  15. Anghel, Brindusa & de la Rica, Sara & Lacuesta, Aitor, 2013. "Employment Polarization in Spain along the Cycle 1997-2012," IZA Discussion Papers 7816, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  16. Christopher L. Smith, 2013. "The dynamics of labor market polarization," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-57, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  17. Jochen Hartwig, 2014. "Testing Okun’s Law with Swiss Industry Data," KOF Working papers 14-357, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.

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