Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Countercyclical Restructuring and Jobless Recoveries

Contents:

Author Info

  • David Berger

    (Yale University)

Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    In the past three recessions, two major features of the business cycle have changed. First, employment now lags output growth, leading to jobless recoveries. Second, average labor productivity (ALP) has become acyclical or even countercyclical. This paper proposes a joint explanation for both facts. I develop a quantitative model in which firms streamline and restructure during recessions. The model captures the idea that firms grow "fat" during booms but then quickly "restructure" during recessions by laying off their unproductive workers. Firms then enter the recovery with a greater ability to meet expanding demand without hiring additional workers. This model explains 55% of the decline in the procyclicality of ALP observed in the data and generates a 4 quarters long jobless recovery after the Great Recession.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.economicdynamics.org/meetpapers/2012/paper_1179.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Society for Economic Dynamics in its series 2012 Meeting Papers with number 1179.

    as in new window
    Length:
    Date of creation: 2012
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:red:sed012:1179

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: Society for Economic Dynamics Christian Zimmermann Economic Research Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis PO Box 442 St. Louis MO 63166-0442 USA
    Fax: 1-314-444-8731
    Email:
    Web page: http://www.EconomicDynamics.org/society.htm
    More information through EDIRC

    Related research

    Keywords:

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Andrew B. Bernard & Stephen J. Redding & Peter K. Schott, 2010. "Multiple-Product Firms and Product Switching," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(1), pages 70-97, March.
    2. Shawn Klimek & James Schmitz & Timothy Dunne, 2010. "Does Foreign Competition Spur Productivity? Evidence From Post WWII U.S. Cement Manufacturing," 2010 Meeting Papers 805, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Steven J. Davis & Till M. von Wachter, 2011. "Recessions and the Cost of Job Loss," NBER Working Papers 17638, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Aghion, Philippe & Saint-Paul, Gilles, 1998. "VIRTUES OF BAD TIMES Interaction Between Productivity Growth and Economic Fluctuations," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(03), pages 322-344, September.
    5. Peter M. Summers, 2005. "What caused the Great Moderation? : some cross-country evidence," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III, pages 5-32.
    6. Louis S. Jacobson & Robert J. LaLonde & Daniel G. Sullivan, 1992. "Earnings losses of displaced workers," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 92-28, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    7. Russell W. Cooper & John C. Haltiwanger, 2006. "On the Nature of Capital Adjustment Costs," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 73(3), pages 611-633.
    8. Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November.
    9. Dino Palazzo & Gian Luca Clementi, 2010. "Entry, Exit, Firm Dynamics, and Aggregate Fluctuations," 2010 Meeting Papers 1188, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. Mortensen, Dale T & Pissarides, Christopher A, 1994. "Job Creation and Job Destruction in the Theory of Unemployment," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(3), pages 397-415, July.
    11. Thijs van Rens, 2004. "Organizational capital and employment fluctuations," Economics Working Papers 944, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    12. Per Krusell & Anthony A. Smith & Jr., 1998. "Income and Wealth Heterogeneity in the Macroeconomy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(5), pages 867-896, October.
    13. Kathryn Koenders & Richard Rogerson, 2005. "Organizational dynamics over the business cycle: a view on jobless recoveries," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 555-580.
    14. Yoonsoo Lee & Toshihiko Mukoyama, 2008. "Entry, Exit, and Plant-Level Dynamics over the Business Cycle," Working Papers 08-17, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    15. Costas Arkolakis & Marc-Andreas Muendler, 2010. "The Extensive Margin of Exporting Products: A Firm-level Analysis," NBER Working Papers 16641, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Nicholas Bloom, 2007. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," NBER Working Papers 13385, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Julia K. Thomas & Dino Palazzo & Aubhik Khan & Gian Luca Clementi, 2011. "Selection, Reallocation and the Shape of Aggregate Fluctuations: A General Equilibrium Analysis," 2011 Meeting Papers 1364, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    18. John Haltiwanger & Ron S. Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2010. "Who Creates Jobs? Small vs. Large vs. Young," Working Papers 10-17, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    19. Thijs van Rens & Jordi Gali, 2010. "The Vanishing Procyclicality of Labor Productivity," 2010 Meeting Papers 705, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    20. Russel W. Cooper & John C. Haltiwanger & Jonathan Willis, 2004. "Dynamics of Labor Demand: Evidence from Plant-level Observations and Aggregate Implications," NBER Working Papers 10297, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. J. Bradford Jensen & Andrew Bernard, 2005. "Firm Structure, Multinationals, and Manufacturing Plant Deaths," Working Papers 05-18, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    22. Daniel Aaronson & Ellen Rissman & Daniel G. Sullivan, 2004. "Can sectoral reallocation explain the jobless recovery?," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q II, pages 36-39.
    23. Philippe Aghion & Jeremy C. Stein, 2008. "Growth versus Margins: Destabilizing Consequences of Giving the Stock Market What It Wants," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(3), pages 1025-1058, 06.
    24. Gian Luca Clementi & Dino Palazzo, 2010. "Entry, Exit, Firm Dynamics, and Aggregate Fluctuations," Working Paper Series 27_10, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    25. Stacey L. Schreft & Aarti Singh, 2003. "A closer look at jobless recoveries," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q II, pages 45-73.
    26. Giuseppe Moscarini & Fabien Postel-Vinay, 2012. "The Contribution of Large and Small Employers to Job Creation in Times of High and Low Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(6), pages 2509-39, October.
    27. Steven J. Davis & John Haltiwanger, 1990. "Gross Job Creation and Destruction: Microeconomic Evidence and Macroeconomic Implications," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1990, Volume 5, pages 123-186 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    28. Erica L. Groshen & Simon Potter, 2003. "Has structural change contributed to a jobless recovery?," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 9(Aug).
    29. Allen Sinai, 2010. "The Business Cycle in a Changing Economy: Conceptualization, Measurement, Dating," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 25-29, May.
    30. Marcelo Veracierto, 1997. "Plant level irreversible investment and equilibrium business cycles," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 115, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    31. Regis Barnichon & Andrew Figura, 2011. "What drives matching efficiency? a tale of composition and dispersion," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-10, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    32. Thomas Philippon, 2004. "Corporate Governance Over the Business Cycle," 2004 Meeting Papers 114, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    33. Edward S. Knotek II & Stephen Terry, 2008. "Alternative methods of solving state-dependent pricing models," Research Working Paper RWP 08-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    34. Hopenhayn, Hugo & Rogerson, Richard, 1993. "Job Turnover and Policy Evaluation: A General Equilibrium Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(5), pages 915-38, October.
    35. Tauchen, George, 1986. "Finite state markov-chain approximations to univariate and vector autoregressions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 177-181.
    36. Solon, Gary & Barsky, Robert & Parker, Jonathan A, 1994. "Measuring the Cyclicality of Real Wages: How Important Is Composition Bias?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(1), pages 1-25, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as in new window

    Cited by:
    1. Edward Prescott & Ellen McGrattan, 2012. "The Labor Productivity Puzzle," 2012 Meeting Papers 644, Society for Economic Dynamics.
      • Ellen R. McGrattan & Edward C. Prescott, 2012. "The Labor Productivity Puzzle," Book Chapters, in: Lee E. Ohanian & John B. Taylor & Ian J. Wright (ed.), Government Policies and the Delayed Economic Recovery, chapter 6 Hoover Institution, Stanford University.

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:red:sed012:1179. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christian Zimmermann).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.