A closer look at jobless recoveries
AbstractMost analysts believe the U.S. economy is now recovering from the recession. Yet businesses continue to lay off workers, prompting The New York Times to dub this "the worst hiring slump in 20 years." Market analysts and economists have a different name for what is happening. They call it a “jobless recovery.”> The only other jobless recovery in postwar U.S. history occurred following the 1990-91 recession. In the early years of that recovery, forecasting models based on data from past business cycles predicted that the observed pickup in output would be accompanied by employment growth. Those forecasts were consistently wrong and left policymakers puzzled by businesses’ continued trimming of payrolls.> Today, policymakers are trying to understand the unexpected joblessness of the past two recoveries. Will employment be stagnant in future recoveries? This possibility makes understanding the behavior of employment in recoveries, especially jobless recoveries, a priority.> Schreft and Singh take a closer look at jobless recoveries and find that they have many common features that distinguish them from the typical recovery. Understanding job growth, an important variable for evaluating economic activity, may enable policymakers to more accurately forecast the pace and strength of recoveries and to develop more effective policy responses to weak employment growth.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in its journal Economic Review.
Volume (Year): (2003)
Issue (Month): Q II ()
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1.
- Alfonso Arpaia & Nicola Curci, 2010.
"EU labour market behaviour during the Great Recession,"
European Economy - Economic Papers
405, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
- Alfonso ARPAIA & Nicola CURCI, . "EU labour market behaviour during the Great Recession," Working Papers wp2010-6, Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance.
- Arpaia, Alfonso & Curci, Nicola, 2010. "EU labour market behaviour during the Great Recession," MPRA Paper 22393, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Ngoo Yee Ting & Loi Siew Ling, 2011. "Okun’S Law In Malaysia: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (Ardl) Approach With Hodrick-Prescott (Hp) Filter," Journal of Global Business and Economics, Global Research Agency, vol. 2(1), pages 95-103, January.
- Kevin J. Stiroh, 2006.
"Volatility accounting: a production perspective on increased economic stability,"
245, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Kevin J. Stiroh, 2009. "Volatility Accounting: A Production Perspective on Increased Economic Stability," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(4), pages 671-696, 06.
- Thijs van Rens, 2004.
"Organizational capital and employment fluctuations,"
Economics Working Papers
944, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Thijs van Rens, 2005. "Organizational Capital and Employment Fluctuations," 2005 Meeting Papers 427, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Rebecca Craigie & David Gillmore & Nicolas Groshenny, 2012. "Not a jobless recovery, just a slow one," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2012/06, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
- Nir Jaimovich & Henry E. Siu, 2012. "The Trend is the Cycle: Job Polarization and Jobless Recoveries," NBER Working Papers 18334, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jinpeng Ma, 2004. "Jobless Recovering and Equilibrium Involuntary Unemployment with a Simple Efficiency Wage Model," Departmental Working Papers 200404, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
- Daniel Aaronson & Ellen Rissman & Daniel G. Sullivan, 2004. "Assessing the jobless recovery," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q II, pages 2-21.
- Stephen D. Oliner & Daniel E. Sichel. & Kevin J. Stiroh, 2007.
"Explaining a productive decade,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
2007-63, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Oliner, Stephen D. & Sichel, Daniel E. & Stiroh, Kevin J., 2008. "Explaining a productive decade," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 633-673.
- Stephen D. Oliner & Daniel E. Sichel & Kevin J. Stiroh, 2007. "Explaining a Productive Decade," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 38(1), pages 81-152.
- Edward S. Knotek II & Stephen Terry, 2009. "How will unemployment fare following the recession?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III, pages 5-33.
- Helge Braun, 2006. "(Un)Employment Dynamics: The Case of Monetary Policy Shocks," 2006 Meeting Papers 87, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- David Berger, 2012. "Countercyclical Restructuring and Jobless Recoveries," 2012 Meeting Papers 1179, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- R. Jason Faberman, 2008. "Job flows, jobless recoveries, and the Great Moderation," Working Papers 08-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Golub, Alla A. & Henderson, Jason R. & Foster, Kenneth A., 2004. "Does Rural Job Growth Lead The Economy Out Of Recession?," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20066, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
- Todd E. Clark & Taisuke Nakata, 2006. "The trend growth rate of employment : past, present, and future," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q I, pages 43-85.
- Erica L. Groshen & Simon Potter, 2003. "Has structural change contributed to a jobless recovery?," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 9(Aug).
- Yilmaz Akyüz, 2009. "Mananging Financial Instability: Why Prudence is not Enough?," Working Papers 86, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs.
- Michael J. Dueker, 2006. "Using cyclical regimes of output growth to predict jobless recoveries," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 145-154.
- Francis, Neville & Jackson, Laura E. & Owyang, Michael T., 2013. "Countercyclical policy and the speed of recovery after recessions," Working Papers 2013-032, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 01 Jan 2014.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Lu Dayrit).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.