Eigenvalue Decomposition of Time Series with Application to the Czech Business Cycle
AbstractWe follow a Beveridge-Nelson like time series decomposition method (into trend, business cycle and irregular components), and examine a stylized model of price inflation determination using the Czech data. We characterize the estimated components of CPI, IPPI and import inflations, together with the real production wage and real output, and survey their basic correlation properties; furthermore we compute structural innovations imposing restrictions on their long-run effects, draw the impulse responses, and test the results by means of bootstrap simulation. We conclude that major room for further refinement of the research is found in two areas, First, from an economist's perspective, in the construction of real marginal cost indicators, and second, from a statistiacian's perspective, in further investigation of the robustness of the method.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Czech National Bank, Research Department in its series Working Papers with number 2004/08.
Date of creation: Dec 2004
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bootstrap; business cycle; inflation; structural VAR; time series decomposition;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2005-04-17 (All new papers)
- NEP-MAC-2005-04-20 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-TRA-2005-04-18 (Transition Economics)
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