Globalization, the Business Cycle, and Macroeconomic Monitoring
AbstractWe propose and implement a framework for characterizing and monitoring the global business cycle. Our framework utilizes high-frequency data, allows us to account for a potentially large amount of missing observations, and is designed to facilitate the updating of global activity estimates as data are released and revisions become available. We apply the framework to the G-7 countries and study various aspects of national and global business cycles, obtaining three main results. First, our measure of the global business cycle, the common G-7 real activity factor, explains a significant amount of cross-country variation and tracks the major global cyclical events of the past forty years. Second, the common G-7 factor and the idiosyncratic country factors play different roles at different times in shaping national economic activity. Finally, the degree of G-7 business cycle synchronization among country factors has changed over time.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 16264.
Date of creation: Aug 2010
Date of revision:
Publication status: published as S. Borağan Aruoba, Francis X. Diebold, M. Ayhan Kose, Marco E. Terrones. "Globalization, the Business Cycle, and Macroeconomic Monitoring," in Richard Clarida and Francesco Giavazzi, organizers, "NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2010" University of Chicago Press (2011)
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Other versions of this item:
- S. Borağan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold & M. Ayhan Kose & Marco E. Terrones, 2011. "Globalization, the Business Cycle, and Macroeconomic Monitoring," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7(1), pages 245 - 286.
- S. Borağan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold & M. Ayhan Kose & Marco E. Terrones, 2010. "Globalization, the Business Cycle, and Macroeconomic Monitoring," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2010, pages 245-286 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- S. Boragan Aruoba & Marco Terrones & M. Ayhan Kose & Francis X. Diebold, 2011. "Globalization, the Business Cycle, and Macroeconomic Monitoring," IMF Working Papers 11/25, International Monetary Fund.
- E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
- E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
- F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-08-21 (All new papers)
- NEP-BEC-2010-08-21 (Business Economics)
- NEP-CBA-2010-08-21 (Central Banking)
- NEP-MAC-2010-08-21 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-OPM-2010-08-21 (Open Economy Macroeconomic)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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