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Expectations and Exchange Rate Policy

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  • Michael B. Devereux
  • Charles Engel

Abstract

Both empirical evidence and theoretical discussion have long emphasized the impact of %u201Cnews%u201D on exchange rates. In most exchange rate models, the exchange rate acts as an asset price, and as such responds to news about future returns on assets. But the exchange rate also plays a role in determining the relative price of non-durable goods when nominal goods prices are sticky. In this paper we argue that these two roles may conflict with one another. If news about future asset returns causes movements in current exchange rates, then when nominal prices are slow to adjust, this may cause changes in current relative goods prices that have no efficiency rationale. In this sense, anticipations of future shocks to fundamentals can cause current exchange rate misalignments. Friedman%u2019s (1953) case for unfettered flexible exchange rates is overturned when exchange rates are asset prices. We outline a series of models in which an optimal policy eliminates the effects of news on exchange rates.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 12213.

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Date of creation: May 2006
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12213

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  1. Obstfeld, Maurice & Duarte, Margarida, 2005. "Monetary Policy in the Open Economy Revisited: The Case for Exchange-Rate Flexibility Restored," 2005 Meeting Papers 386, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  2. Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel, 2003. "Monetary Policy in the Open Economy Revisited: Price Setting and Exchange-Rate Flexibility," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(4), pages 765-783.
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  7. Lars E.O. Svensson & Michael Woodford, 2004. "Implementing Optimal Policy through Inflation-Forecast Targeting," NBER Chapters, in: The Inflation-Targeting Debate, pages 19-92 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Campbell, John & Shiller, Robert, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Scholarly Articles 3122490, Harvard University Department of Economics.
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  10. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2002. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange?," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 02-23, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
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  15. Charles Engel & Kenneth D. West, 2004. "Accounting for Exchange Rate Variability in Present-Value Models When the Discount Factor is Near One," NBER Working Papers 10267, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Filardo, Andrew & Genberg, Hans, 2010. "Monetary Policy Strategies in the Asia and Pacific Region: What Way Forward?," ADBI Working Papers 195, Asian Development Bank Institute.
  2. Beetsma, Roel & Giuliodori, Massimo, 2009. "The Macroeconomic Costs and Benefits of the EMU and other Monetary Unions: An Overview of Recent Research," CEPR Discussion Papers 7500, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2007. "On the Rand: Determinants of the South African Exchange Rate," Working Paper Series rwp07-015, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  4. Pierpaolo Benigno, 2006. "Are Valuation Effects Desirable from a Global Perspective?," NBER Working Papers 12219, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Cédric Tille & Eric van Wincoop, 2008. "International Capital Flows under Dispersed Information: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 14390, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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