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International Capital Flows under Dispersed Information: Theory and Evidence

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  • Cédric Tille
  • Eric van Wincoop

Abstract

We develop a new theory of international capital flows based on dispersed information across individual investors. There is extensive evidence of information heterogeneity within and across countries, which has proven critical to understanding asset price behavior. We introduce information dispersion into an open economy dynamic general equilibrium portfolio choice model, and emphasize two implications for capital flows that are specific to the presence of dispersed information. First, gross and net capital flows become partially disconnected from publicly observed fundamentals. Second, capital flows (particularly gross flows) contain information about future fundamentals, even after controlling for current fundamentals. We find that these implications are quantitatively significant and consistent with data for industrialized countries.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 14390.

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Date of creation: Oct 2008
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14390

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Jean Imbs, 2010. "The First Global Recession in Decades," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 58(2), pages 327-354, December.
  2. Stephanie E. Curcuru & Charles P. Thomas & Francis E. Warnock & Jon Wongswan, 2011. "U.S. International Equity Investment and Past and Prospective Returns," NBER Working Papers 16677, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Fernando Broner & Tatiana Didier & Aitor Erce & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2010. "Gross capital flows: Dynamics and crises," Economics Working Papers 1227, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Dec 2012.
  4. Janus, Thorsten & Riera-Crichton, Daniel, 2013. "International gross capital flows: New uses of balance of payments data and application to financial crises," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 16-28.
  5. Juergen von Hagen & Haiping Zhang, 2010. "International Capital Flows and World Output Gains," Working Papers 01-2010, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
  6. Juergen von Hagen & Haiping zhang, 2010. "International Capital Flows and Aggregate Output," Working Papers 10-2010, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
  7. von Hagen, Jürgen & Zhang, Haiping, 2012. "International Capital Flows with Limited Commitment and Incomplete Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 8750, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Jacob Gyntelberg & Mico Loretan & Tientip Subhanij & Eric Chan, 2009. "Private information, stock markets, and exchange rates," BIS Working Papers 271, Bank for International Settlements.
  9. Hnatkovska, Viktoria, 2010. "Home bias and high turnover: Dynamic portfolio choice with incomplete markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 113-128, January.
  10. Stephanie E. Curcuru & Charles P. Thomas & Francis E. Warnock & Jon Wongswan, 2011. "U.S. international equity investment and past prospective returns," International Finance Discussion Papers 1016, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  11. Stephanie E. Curcuru & Charles P. Thomas & Francis E. Warnock & Jon Wongswan, 2014. "Uncovered Equity Parity and Rebalancing in International Portfolios," NBER Working Papers 19963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Jürgen von Hagen & Haiping Zhang, 2014. "International Capital Flows in the Model with Limited Commitment and Incomplete Markets," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 195-224, February.

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