We develop a new theory of international capital flows based on dispersed information across individual investors. There is extensive evidence of information heterogeneity within and across countries, which has proven critical to understanding asset price behavior. We introduce information dispersion into an open economy dynamic general equilibrium portfolio choice model, and emphasize two implications for capital flows that are specific to the presence of dispersed information. First, gross and net capital flows become partially disconnected from publicly observed fundamentals. Second, capital flows (particularly gross flows) contain information about future fundamentals, even after controlling for current fundamentals. We find that these implications are quantitatively significant and consistent with data for industrialized countries.
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number
14390.
Length: Date of creation: Oct 2008 Date of revision: Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14390
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Find related papers by JEL classification: F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
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