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International Capital Flows under Dispersed Information: Theory and Evidence

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Author Info
Tille, Cédric
van Wincoop, Eric

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Abstract

We develop a new theory of international capital flows based on dispersed information across individual investors. There is extensive evidence of information heterogeneity within and across countries, which has proven critical to understanding asset price behavior. We introduce information dispersion into an open economy dynamic general equilibrium portfolio choice model, and emphasize two implications for capital flows that are specific to the presence of dispersed information. First, gross and net capital flows become partially disconnected from publicly observed fundamentals. Second, capital flows (particularly gross flows) contain information about future fundamentals, even after controlling for current fundamentals. We find that these implications are quantitatively significant and consistent with data for industrialized countries.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 6989.

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Date of creation: Oct 2008
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6989

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Related research
Keywords: information dispersion; international capital flows;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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  1. Rui Albuquerque & Gregory H. Bauer & Martin Schneider, 2007. "International Equity Flows and Returns: A Quantitative Equilibrium Approach," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 74(1), pages 1-30, 01. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Martin D. D. Evans (Georgetown University) and Viktoria Hnatkovska (Georgetown University), . "Solving General Equilibrium Models with Incomplete Markets and Many Assets," Working Papers gueconwpa~05-05-18, Georgetown University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2002. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(1), pages 170-180, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Albuquerque, Rui & Bauer, Gregor H & Schneider, Martin, 2006. "Global Private Information in International Equity Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 5819, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel, 2006. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Policy," NBER Working Papers 12213, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Brennan, Michael J & Cao, H Henry, 1997. " International Portfolio Investment Flows," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 1851-80, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Guido Lorenzoni, 2007. "News Shocks and Optimal Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 12898, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Gehrig, Thomas, 1993. " An Information Based Explanation of the Domestic Bias in International Equity Investment," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 95(1), pages 97-109.
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  14. Spiegel, Matthew & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 1992. "Informed Speculation and Hedging in a Noncompetitive Securities Market," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 307-29. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Laura Veldkamp, 2007. "Information Immobility and the Home Bias Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 13366, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1992. "International Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(4), pages 745-75, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Philippe Jorion & William N. Goetzmann, 1999. "Global Stock Markets in the Twentieth Century," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(3), pages 953-980, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jacob Gyntelberg & Mico Loretan & Tientip Subhanij & Eric Chan, 2009. "Private information, stock markets, and exchange rates," BIS Working Papers 271, Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
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