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On the Rand: Determinants of the South African Exchange Rate

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  • Frankel, Jeffrey

    (Harvard U)

Abstract

This paper is an econometric investigation of the determinants of the real value of the South African rand over the period 1984-2006. The results show a relatively good fit. As always with exchange rate equations, there is substantial weight on the lagged exchange rate, which can be attributed to a momentum component. Nevertheless, economic fundamentals are significant and important. This is especially true of an index of the real prices of South African mineral commodities, which even drives out real income as a significant determinant. An implication is that the 2003-2006 real appreciation of the rand can be attributed to the Dutch Disease. In other respects, the rand behaves like currencies of industrialized countries with well-developed financial markets. In particular, high South African interest rates raise international demand for the rand and lead to real appreciation, once one also controls for a forward-looking measure of expected inflation and a measure of default risk or country risk. It is in the latter respects, in particular, that the paper purports to improve on earlier studies of the rand. [Jointly published as Center for International Development Working Paper No. 139 and KSG Faculty Research Working Paper Series RWP07-015.]

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government in its series Working Paper Series with number rwp07-015.

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Date of creation: Mar 2007
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Handle: RePEc:ecl:harjfk:rwp07-015

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References

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  1. Devereux, Michael B & Engel, Charles M, 2006. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 5743, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Frankel, Jeff & Froot, Ken, 1986. "Using Survey Data to Test Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt1972q8wm, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  3. Stokke, Hildegunn E., 2008. "Resource boom, productivity growth and real exchange rate dynamics -- A dynamic general equilibrium analysis of South Africa," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 148-160, January.
  4. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert & Min Wei, 2005. "Do Macro Variables, Asset Markets or Surveys Forecast Inflation Better?," NBER Working Papers 11538, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Mark, Nelson C, 1995. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence on Long-Horizon Predictability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 201-18, March.
  6. Janine Aron & Ibrahim Elbadawi & Brian Kahn, 1998. "Determinants of the real exchange rate in South Africa," CSAE Working Paper Series 1997-16, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
  7. Goodhart, Charles, 1988. "The Foreign Exchange Market: A Random Walk with a Dragging Anchor," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 55(220), pages 437-60, November.
  8. Ricardo J. Caballero & Guido Lorenzoni, 2007. "Persistent Appreciations and Overshooting: A Normative Analysis," NBER Working Papers 13077, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Ronald MacDonald & Luca Antonio Ricci, 2003. "Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate for South Africa," IMF Working Papers 03/44, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Kenneth A. Froot, 1985. "Using Survey Data to Test Some Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations," NBER Working Papers 1672, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Janine Aron & Ibrahim Elbadawi, 1999. "Reflections on the South African rand crisis of 1996 and its consequences," CSAE Working Paper Series 1999-13, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
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Cited by:
  1. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2012. "The Natural Resource Curse: A Survey of Diagnoses and Some Prescriptions," Scholarly Articles 8694932, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
  2. Balazs Egert, 2012. "Nominal and Real Exchange Rate Models in South Africa: How Robust are they?," CESifo Working Paper Series 3853, CESifo Group Munich.
  3. McKenzie, Rex & Pons-Vignon, Nicolas, 2012. "Volatile Capital Flows and a Route to Financial Crisis in South Africa," MPRA Paper 40119, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Rodrigo Caputo & Mariel Siravegna, 2014. "RER Appreciation After the Great Recession: Misalignment or Fundamental Correction?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 718, Central Bank of Chile.
  5. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2012. "The Natural Resource Curse: A Survey of Diagnoses and Some Prescriptions," Working Paper Series rwp12-014, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  6. Sean J. Gossel & Nicholas Biekpe, 2012. "The nominal rand/dollar exchange rate: before and after 1995," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 29(2), pages 105-117, June.
  7. Rodrigo Caputo & Miguel Fuentes, 2012. "Government Spending and the Real Exchange Rate: a Cross - Country Perspective," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 655, Central Bank of Chile.
  8. Isaacs, Gilad, 2014. "The myth of “neutrality” and the rhetoric of “stability”: macroeconomic policy in democratic South Africa," MPRA Paper 54426, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Elena Dumitrescu & Rabah Arezki & Andreas Freytag & Marc Quintyn, 2012. "Commodity Prices and Exchange Rate Volatility," IMF Working Papers 12/168, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Martin Grandes & Marcel Peter & Nicolas Pinaud, 2010. "Pricing the Currency Premium Under Flexible Exchange Rates: Evidence from South Africa," Ensayos Económicos, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department, vol. 1(60), pages 7-52, October -.

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