This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Resource Boom, Productivity Growth and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics - A dynamic general equilibrium analysis of South Africa

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Hildegunn Ekroll Stokke () (Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology)

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

We study the impact of a natural resource boom on structural change and real exchange rate dynamics, taking into account the indirect effect via relative sectoral productivity changes. Our contribution relative to the Dutch disease literature is threefold. First, the productivity specification is extended from simple learning by doing to include trade barriers and technology gap dynamics, consistent with the modern understanding of productivity growth. Second, we offer a dynamic general equilibrium model with imperfect substitution between domestic and foreign goods. Third, the model is applied to South Africa and analyzes the macroeconomic impact of the gold price increase in the 1970s. Political pressure for rapid domestic spending after a surge in resource rents tends to generate myopic government behavior with unsustainable high consumption spending. Such fiscal response to higher resource income is captured by the model specification. Numerical simulations show how the resource boom can help explain the structural change and real exchange rate path observed in South Africa. Due to productivity effects the initial real appreciation is followed by gradual depreciation of the real exchange rate.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help file. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.svt.ntnu.no/iso/WP/2006/8SA2_may22_06_EM.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology in its series Working Paper Series with number 7206.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML, plain text, BibTeX, RIS (EndNote), ReDIF
Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: 22 May 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nst:samfok:7206

Contact details of provider:
Postal: 7491 Trondheim
Phone: 73 59 19 40
Fax: 73 59 69 54
Email:
Web page: http://www.svt.ntnu.no/iso/WP/wp.htm
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Øystein Røkke).

Related research
Keywords: gold price boom Dutch disease trade barriers fiscal response deindustrialization

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
O33 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Technological Change - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
O41 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
O55 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa
Q33 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Resource Booms (Dutch Disease)

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Torvik, Ragnar, 2001. "Learning by doing and the Dutch disease," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 285-306, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Sachs, J-D & Warner, A-M, 1995. "Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth," Papers 517a, Harvard - Institute for International Development.
  3. Torfinn Harding & Jørn Rattsø, 2005. "The Barrier Model of Productivity Growth: South Africa," Working Paper Series 4805, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Parente, Stephen L & Prescott, Edward C, 1994. "Barriers to Technology Adoption and Development," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(2), pages 298-321, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Kenneth A. Froot & Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "Perspectives on PPP and Long-Run Real Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 4952, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Stephen L. Parente & Edward C. Prescott, 2004. "A unified theory of the evolution of international income levels," Staff Report 333, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. By Gunnar Jonsson & Arvind Subramanian, 2001. "Dynamic Gains from Trade: Evidence from South Africa," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan Journals, vol. 48(1), pages 8. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Daron Acemoglu & Jaume Ventura, 2002. "The World Income Distribution," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 659-694, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Rattso, Jorn & Torvik, Ragnar, 1998. "Economic openness, trade restrictions and external shocks: modelling short run effects in Sub-Saharan Africa," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 257-286, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Diao, Xinshen & Rattsø, Jørn & Stokke, Hildegunn Ekroll, 2002. "International spillovers, productivity growth and openness in Thailand," TMD discussion papers 89, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). [Downloadable!]
  12. Diao, Xinshen & Rattso, Jorn & Stokke, Hildegunn E., 2006. "Learning by exporting and structural change: A Ramsey growth model of Thailand," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 293-306, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Matsen, Egil & Torvik, Ragnar, 2005. "Optimal Dutch disease," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 494-515, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  14. Y.Chen & K. Rogoff, 2003. "Commodity Currencies and Empirical Exchange Rate Puzzles," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 76, Netherlands Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  15. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew M. Warner, 1995. "Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 5398, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Richard R. Nelson & Edmond S. Phelps, 1965. "Investment in Humans, Technological Diffusion and Economic Growth," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 189, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  17. Luca Antonio Ricci & Ronald MacDonald, 2002. "Purchasing Power Parity and New Trade Theory," IMF Working Papers 02/32, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  18. Luis Felipe Céspedes & Paul Cashin & Ratna Sahay, 2003. "Keynes, Cocoa, and Copper: In Search of Commodity Currencies," IMF Working Papers 02/223, International Monetary Fund.
  19. Rodriguez, Francisco & Sachs, Jeffrey D, 1999. " Why Do Resource-Abundant Economies Grow More Slowly?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 277-303, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Jess Benhabib & Mark M. Spiegel, 2002. "Human capital and technology diffusion," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2003-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  21. Coe, David T & Helpman, Elhanan & Hoffmaister, Alexander W, 1997. "North-South R&D Spillovers," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(440), pages 134-49, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  22. Stilwell, L. C. & Minnitt, R. C. A. & Monson, T. D. & Kuhn, G., 2000. "An input-output analysis of the impact of mining on the South African economy," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 17-30, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Luca Antonio Ricci & Ronald MacDonald, 2003. "Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate for South Africa," IMF Working Papers 03/44, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  24. Hildegunn Stokke, 2004. "Technology adoption and multiple growth paths: An intertemporal general equilibrium analysis of the catch-up process in Thailand," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 140(1), pages 80-109, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  25. Kenneth Rogoff & Yu-chin Chen, 2002. "Commodity Currencies and Empirical Exchange Rate Puzzles," IMF Working Papers 02/27, International Monetary Fund.
  26. Hildegunn Ekroll Stokke & Jørn Rattsø, 2004. "Ramsey model of barriers to growth and skill-biased income distribution in South Africa," Working Paper Series 4604, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, revised 07 Feb 2005. [Downloadable!]
  27. Aron, J. & Elbadawi, I. & Kahn, B., 1998. "Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate in South Africa," Working Papers Series 98-16, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jeffrey Frankel, 2007. "On the Rand: Determinants of the South African Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 13050, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? Authors registered on the RePEc Author Service receive monthly emails with details about downloads and abstract views of their works.

This page was last updated on 2008-11-7.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.