Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Resource Boom, Productivity Growth and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics - A dynamic general equilibrium analysis of South Africa

Contents:

Author Info

  • Hildegunn Ekroll Stokke

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology)

Abstract

We study the impact of a natural resource boom on structural change and real exchange rate dynamics, taking into account the indirect effect via relative sectoral productivity changes. Our contribution relative to the Dutch disease literature is threefold. First, the productivity specification is extended from simple learning by doing to include trade barriers and technology gap dynamics, consistent with the modern understanding of productivity growth. Second, we offer a dynamic general equilibrium model with imperfect substitution between domestic and foreign goods. Third, the model is applied to South Africa and analyzes the macroeconomic impact of the gold price increase in the 1970s. Political pressure for rapid domestic spending after a surge in resource rents tends to generate myopic government behavior with unsustainable high consumption spending. Such fiscal response to higher resource income is captured by the model specification. Numerical simulations show how the resource boom can help explain the structural change and real exchange rate path observed in South Africa. Due to productivity effects the initial real appreciation is followed by gradual depreciation of the real exchange rate.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.svt.ntnu.no/iso/WP/2006/8SA2_may22_06_EM.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology in its series Working Paper Series with number 7206.

as in new window
Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: 22 May 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nst:samfok:7206

Contact details of provider:
Postal: 7491 Trondheim
Phone: 73 59 19 40
Fax: 73 59 69 54
Email:
Web page: http://www.svt.ntnu.no/iso/WP/wp.htm
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: gold price boom; Dutch disease; trade barriers; fiscal response; deindustrialization;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Luca Antonio Ricci & Ronald MacDonald, 2002. "Purchasing Power Parity and New Trade Theory," IMF Working Papers 02/32, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew M. Warner, 1995. "Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 5398, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Parente, Stephen L & Prescott, Edward C, 1994. "Barriers to Technology Adoption and Development," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(2), pages 298-321, April.
  4. Peter J. Klenow & Andres Rodriguez-Clare, 2004. "Externalities and Growth," NBER Working Papers 11009, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Krugman, Paul, 1987. "The narrow moving band, the Dutch disease, and the competitive consequences of Mrs. Thatcher : Notes on trade in the presence of dynamic scale economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1-2), pages 41-55, October.
  6. Janine Aron & Ibrahim Elbadawi & Brian Kahn, 1998. "Determinants of the real exchange rate in South Africa," CSAE Working Paper Series 1997-16, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
  7. Ronald MacDonald & Luca Antonio Ricci, 2003. "Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate for South Africa," IMF Working Papers 03/44, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Ratna Sahay & Luis Felipe Céspedes & Paul Cashin, 2002. "Keynes, Cocoa, and Copper," IMF Working Papers 02/223, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Parente, Stephen L. & Prescott, Edward C., 2005. "A Unified Theory of the Evolution of International Income Levels," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1371-1416 Elsevier.
  10. Kenneth A. Froot & Kenneth Rogoff, 1994. "Perspectives on PPP and Long-Run Real Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 4952, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Torfinn Harding & Jørn Rattsø, 2005. "The barrier model of productivity growth: South Africa," Discussion Papers 425, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
  12. Matsen, Egil & Torvik, Ragnar, 2005. "Optimal Dutch disease," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 494-515, December.
  13. Coe, David T & Helpman, Elhanan & Hoffmaister, Alexander W, 1997. "North-South R&D Spillovers," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(440), pages 134-49, January.
  14. Stilwell, L. C. & Minnitt, R. C. A. & Monson, T. D. & Kuhn, G., 2000. "An input-output analysis of the impact of mining on the South African economy," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 17-30, March.
  15. van Wijnbergen, Sweder J G, 1984. "The 'Dutch Disease': A Disease after All?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 94(373), pages 41-55, March.
  16. Torvik, Ragnar, 2001. "Learning by doing and the Dutch disease," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 285-306, February.
  17. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
  18. Benhabib, Jess & Spiegel, Mark M., 2005. "Human Capital and Technology Diffusion," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 13, pages 935-966 Elsevier.
  19. Daron Acemoglu & Jaume Ventura, 2001. "The World Income Distribution," NBER Working Papers 8083, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Fedderke, Johannes, 2002. "Technology, Human Capital and Growth: evidence from a middle income country case study applying dynamic heterogeneous panel analysis," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 71, Royal Economic Society.
  21. Kenneth Rogoff & Yu-chin Chen, 2002. "Commodity Currencies and Empirical Exchange Rate Puzzles," IMF Working Papers 02/27, International Monetary Fund.
  22. Diao, Xinshen & Rattsø, Jørn & Stokke, Hildegunn Ekroll, 2002. "International spillovers, productivity growth and openness in Thailand," TMD discussion papers 89, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  23. Hildegunn Stokke, 2004. "Technology adoption and multiple growth paths: An intertemporal general equilibrium analysis of the catch-up process in Thailand," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 140(1), pages 80-109, March.
  24. By Gunnar Jonsson & Arvind Subramanian, 2001. "Dynamic Gains from Trade: Evidence from South Africa," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(1), pages 8.
  25. Diao, Xinshen & Rattso, Jorn & Stokke, Hildegunn E., 2006. "Learning by exporting and structural change: A Ramsey growth model of Thailand," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 293-306, April.
  26. Rodriguez, Francisco & Sachs, Jeffrey D, 1999. " Why Do Resource-Abundant Economies Grow More Slowly?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 277-303, September.
  27. Rattso, Jorn & Torvik, Ragnar, 1998. "Economic openness, trade restrictions and external shocks: modelling short run effects in Sub-Saharan Africa," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 257-286, April.
  28. Richard R. Nelson & Edmond S. Phelps, 1965. "Investment in Humans, Technological Diffusion and Economic Growth," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 189, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  29. Hildegunn Ekroll Stokke & Jørn Rattsø, 2004. "Ramsey model of barriers to growth and skill-biased income distribution in South Africa," Working Paper Series 4604, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, revised 07 Feb 2005.
  30. Benjamin, Nancy C. & Devarajan, Shantayanan & Weiner, Robert J., 1989. "The Dutch disease in a developing country : Oil reserves in Cameroon," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 71-92, January.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Seedwell Hove & Albert Touna Mama & Fulbert Tchana Tchana, 2012. "Monetary policy and commodity terms of trade shocks in emerging market economies," Working Papers 307, Economic Research Southern Africa.
  2. Frederick Van der Ploeg, 2010. "Natural Resources: Curse or Blessing?," CESifo Working Paper Series 3125, CESifo Group Munich.
  3. Jeffrey Frankel, 2007. "On the Rand: Determinants of the South African Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 13050, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2006. "Challenges and Opportunities for Resource Rich Economies," CEPR Discussion Papers 5688, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Sean J. Gossel & Nicholas Biekpe, 2012. "The nominal rand/dollar exchange rate: before and after 1995," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 29(2), pages 105-117, June.
  6. Prashanth Mahagaonkar & Rainer Schweickert & Aditya S. Chavali, 2009. "Sectoral R&D Intensity and Exchange Rate Volatility: A Panel Study for OECD Countries," Kiel Working Papers 1531, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nst:samfok:7206. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Marit Balstad Jensen) The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Marit Balstad Jensen to update the entry or send us the correct address.

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.