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To Smooth or Not to Smooth—The Impact of Grants and Remittances on the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in Jordan

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  • Mr. Martin Petri
  • Tahsin Saadi Sedik

Abstract

This paper estimates the effect of grants and workers' remittances on Jordan's long-term equilibrium real exchange rate. We estimate an equilibrium path for the Jordanian real exchange rate using the Johansen cointegration methodology over the period 1964 to 2005. Controlling for other fundamentals, we find that both grants and workers' remittances appreciate the equilibrium real exchange rate in a statistically and economically significant way. We also find that assessing deviations of the actual real exchange rate from the estimated equilibrium real exchange rate is nontrivial because different smoothing methodologies and the nonsmoothed estimates give very different results.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Martin Petri & Tahsin Saadi Sedik, 2006. "To Smooth or Not to Smooth—The Impact of Grants and Remittances on the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in Jordan," IMF Working Papers 2006/257, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2006/257
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    Cited by:

    1. Cevik, Serhan & Saadi Sedik, Tahsin, 2014. "A Barrel of Oil or a Bottle of Wine: How Do Global Growth Dynamics Affect Commodity Prices?," Journal of Wine Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(1), pages 34-50, May.
    2. Adolfo Barajas & Ralph Chami & Dalia Hakura & Peter Montiel, 2011. "Workers’ Remittances and the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate: Theory and Evidence," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 45-99, January.
    3. International Monetary Fund, 2016. "Kyrgyz Republic: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2016/056, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Mariem Brahim & Nader Nefzi & Hamed Sambo, 2017. "Remittances and the real effective exchange rates in MENA countries: What is the long run impact?," Working Papers hal-01583564, HAL.
    5. Mr. Eugenio M Cerutti & Mr. Mario Mansilla, 2008. "Bolivia: The Hydrocarbons Boom and the Risk of Dutch Disease," IMF Working Papers 2008/154, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Mr. Joannes Mongardini & Mr. Alexander Chudik, 2007. "In Search of Equilibrium: Estimating Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates in Sub-Saharan African Countries," IMF Working Papers 2007/090, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Naheem Mahtab, 2015. "The Effect of Macroeconomic Variables on the Inflow of Remittance in Bangladesh," Economy, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 2(1), pages 21-31.
    8. Montiel, Peter J & Spilimbergo, Antonio & Mishra, Prachi, 2010. "Monetary transmission in low income countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 7951, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Mr. Joannes Mongardini & Brett Rayner, 2009. "Grants, Remittances, and the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in Sub-Saharan African Countries," IMF Working Papers 2009/075, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Jean-Louis COMBES & Patrick PLANE & Tidiane KINDA, 2010. "Capital Flows and their Impact on the Real Effective Exchange Rate," Working Papers 201032, CERDI.
    11. Viktors Ajevskis & Ramune Rimgailaite & Uldis Rutkaste & Olegs Tkacevs, 2012. "The Assesment of Equilibrium Real Echange Rate of Latvia," Working Papers 2012/04, Latvijas Banka.
    12. Sarah Lynne Salvador Daway-Ducanes & Maria Socorro Gochoco-Bautista, 2019. "Manufacturing and Services Growth in Developing Economies: ‘Too Little’ Finance?," Progress in Development Studies, , vol. 19(1), pages 55-82, January.
    13. Christos Nikas & Student Anastasia Blouchoutzi, 2014. "Emigrants’ Remittances and the “Dutch Disease” in Small Transition Economies: the Case Of Albania and Moldova," Romanian Statistical Review, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 62(1), pages 45-65, March.
    14. Nizar, Muhammad Afdi, 2014. "Pengaruh Aliran Masuk Devisa Tenaga Kerja (Workers’ Remittances) Terhadap Nilai Tukar Rupiah [The Effect of Workers’ Remittances on Exchange Rates of Rupiah]," MPRA Paper 65728, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. World Bank, 2008. "Jordan - Resolving Jordan's Labor Market Paradox of Concurrent Economic Growth and High Unemployment," World Bank Publications - Reports 18907, The World Bank Group.
    16. Lucas Njoroge, 2021. "Capital Inflows and Economic Growth in Selected COMESA Member Countries," Journal of Finance and Investment Analysis, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 10(4), pages 1-3.
    17. Sarah Lynne Salvador Daway‐Ducanes, 2019. "Remittances, Dutch Disease, and Manufacturing Growth in Developing Economies," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 66(3), pages 360-383, July.
    18. Noura Abu Asab, 2017. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignment in Jordan: The Permanent Equilibrium Approach," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 9(3), pages 29-37, March.
    19. Mr. Jemma Dridi & Maher Hasan, 2008. "The Impact of Oil-Related Income on the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in Syria," IMF Working Papers 2008/196, International Monetary Fund.
    20. International Monetary Fund, 2009. "Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2009/061, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Ms. Huidan Huidan Lin, 2011. "Determinants of Remittances: Evidence From tonga," IMF Working Papers 2011/018, International Monetary Fund.

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