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A Barrel of Oil or a Bottle of Wine: How Do Global Growth Dynamics Affect Commodity Prices?

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  • Tahsin Saadi Sedik
  • Mr. Serhan Cevik

Abstract

This paper investigates the causes of extreme fluctuations in commodity prices from 1990 to 2010. Analyzing two very distinct commodities-crude oil and fine wine, we find that macroeconomic factors are the main determinants of commodity prices. Although supply constraints have the expected effect, aggregate demand growth is the key factor. The empirical results show that while advanced economies account for more than half of global consumption, emerging economies make up the bulk of the incremental change in demand, thereby having a greater weight in commodity price formation. The results also show that the shift in the composition of aggregate commodity demand is a recent phenomenon.

Suggested Citation

  • Tahsin Saadi Sedik & Mr. Serhan Cevik, 2011. "A Barrel of Oil or a Bottle of Wine: How Do Global Growth Dynamics Affect Commodity Prices?," IMF Working Papers 2011/001, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2011/001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Arze del Granado, Francisco Javier & Coady, David & Gillingham, Robert, 2012. "The Unequal Benefits of Fuel Subsidies: A Review of Evidence for Developing Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(11), pages 2234-2248.
    2. Mr. Martin Petri & Tahsin Saadi Sedik, 2006. "To Smooth or Not to Smooth—The Impact of Grants and Remittances on the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in Jordan," IMF Working Papers 2006/257, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Jean-Marie Cardebat & Jean-Marc Figuet, 2004. "What explains Bordeaux wine prices?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(5), pages 293-296.
    4. Mr. David Coady & Mr. Javier Arze del Granado, 2010. "The Unequal Benefits of Fuel Subsidies: A Review of Evidence for Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 2010/202, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Algieri, Bernardina, 2013. "A Roller Coaster Ride: an empirical investigation of the main drivers of wheat price," Discussion Papers 145556, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
    2. Bouri, Elie & Gupta, Rangan & Wong, Wing-Keung & Zhu, Zhenzhen, 2018. "Is wine a good choice for investment?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 171-183.
    3. Magkonis, Georgios & Tsouknidis, Dimitris A., 2017. "Dynamic spillover effects across petroleum spot and futures volatilities, trading volume and open interest," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 104-118.
    4. Nazlioglu, Saban & Erdem, Cumhur & Soytas, Ugur, 2013. "Volatility spillover between oil and agricultural commodity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 658-665.
    5. Bernardina Algieri, 2014. "A roller coaster ride: an empirical investigation of the main drivers of the international wheat price," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(4), pages 459-475, July.
    6. Eric Le Fur & Jean-François Outreville, 2019. "Fine wine returns: a review of the literature," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 20(3), pages 196-214, May.
    7. Schalck, Christophe & Chenavaz, Régis, 2015. "Oil commodity returns and macroeconomic factors: A time-varying approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 290-303.
    8. Adrian Fernandez-Perez & Bart Frijns & Alireza Tourani-Rad & Jean-Philippe Weisskopf, 2019. "Behavioural heterogeneity in wine investments," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(30), pages 3236-3255, June.
    9. Elie Bouri & Tsangyao Chang & Rangan Gupta, 2016. "Testing the Efficiency of the Wine Market using Unit Root Tests with Sharp and Smooth Breaks," Working Papers 201664, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    10. Tan Ngoc Vu & Chi Minh Ho & Thang Cong Nguyen & Duc Hong Vo, 2020. "The Determinants of Risk Transmission between Oil and Agricultural Prices: An IPVAR Approach," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-14, April.
    11. Ben Ameur, Hachmi & Le Fur, Eric, 2020. "Volatility transmission to the fine wine market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 307-316.
    12. Cardebat, Jean-Marie & Jiao, Linda, 2018. "The long-term financial drivers of fine wine prices: The role of emerging markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 347-361.
    13. Korhan K. Gokmenoglu & Hasan Güngör & Festus Victor Bekun, 2021. "Revisiting the linkage between oil and agricultural commodity prices: Panel evidence from an Agrarian state," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5610-5620, October.
    14. Fasanya, Ismail O. & Adekoya, Oluwasegun & Sonola, Ridwan, 2023. "Forecasting stock prices with commodity prices: New evidence from Feasible Quasi Generalized Least Squares (FQGLS) with non-linearities," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 47(2).
    15. Donders, Pablo & Jara, Mauricio & Wagner, Rodrigo, 2018. "How sensitive is corporate debt to swings in commodity prices?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 237-258.
    16. Hu, Min & Zhang, Dayong & Ji, Qiang & Wei, Lijian, 2020. "Macro factors and the realized volatility of commodities: A dynamic network analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    17. Alexandra Dwyer & George Gardner & Thomas Williams, 2011. "Global Commodity Markets - Price Volatility and Financialisation," RBA Bulletin (Print copy discontinued), Reserve Bank of Australia, pages 49-58, June.
    18. Wen, Fenghua & Zhao, Cong & Hu, Chunyan, 2019. "Time-varying effects of international copper price shocks on China's producer price index," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 507-514.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    WP; price; commodity; commodity price; emerging market economy; demand; Commodity prices; Oil; Wine; Comovement; Global growth; Emerging economies; wine price; crude oil; price fluctuation; price pressure; oil price regression; Oil prices; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Excess liquidity; Global;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • Q39 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Other
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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