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Capital Flows and their Impact on the Real Effective Exchange Rate

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  • Jean-Louis Combes

    (CERDI - Centre d'études et de recherches sur le developpement international - CNRS : UMR6587 - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I)

  • Patrick Plane

    (CERDI - Centre d'études et de recherches sur le developpement international - CNRS : UMR6587 - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I)

  • Tidiane Kinda

    (IMF - IMF - International Monetary Fund)

Abstract

This paper analyzes the impact of capital inflows and the exchange rate regime on the real effective exchange rate. A wide range of developing countries (42 countries) is considered with estimation based on panel cointegration techniques. The results show that both public and private inflows cause the real effective exchange rate to appreciate. Among private inflows, portfolio investment has the biggest effect on appreciation, almost seven times that of foreign direct investment or bank loans, and private inflows have the smallest effect. Using a de facto measure of exchange rate flexibility, we find that a more flexible exchange rate helps to dampen appreciation of the real effective exchange rate caused by capital inflows.

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Paper provided by HAL in its series Working Papers with number halshs-00552213.

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Date of creation: 05 Jan 2011
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Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00552213

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Keywords: Private capital flows; real effective exchange rate; exchange rate flexibility; emerging markets; low-income countries; pooled mean group estimator;

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  1. Martin Petri & Tahsin Saadi-Sedik, 2006. "To Smooth or Not to Smooth," IMF Working Papers 06/257, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Paul Cashin & Luis Felipe Céspedes & Ratna Sahay, 2003. "Commodity Currencies and the Real Exchange Rate," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 236, Central Bank of Chile.
  3. Prema-Chandra Athukorala & Sarath Rajapatirana, 2003. "Capital Inflows and the Real Exchange Rate: A Comparative Study of Asia and Latin America," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(4), pages 613-637, 04.
  4. Maeso-Fernandez, Francisco & Osbat, Chiara & Schnatz, Bernd, 2004. "Towards the estimation of equilibrium exchange rates for CEE acceding countries: methodological issues and a panel cointegration perspective," Working Paper Series 0353, European Central Bank.
  5. Thomas William Dorsey & Zuzana Brixiova & Sukhwinder Singh & Helaway Tadesse, 2008. "The Landscape of Capital Flows to Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 08/51, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina & Pozo, Susan, 2004. "Workers' Remittances and the Real Exchange Rate: A Paradox of Gifts," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 1407-1417, August.
  7. Chen, Yu-chin & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2003. "Commodity currencies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 133-160, May.
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