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Industry Concentration in South African Manufacturing Industry: Trends and Consequences, 1972-96

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  • Johannes Fedderke
  • Gabor Szalontai

Abstract

This paper examines industry concentration for the South African manufacturing sector over the 1972-1996 period, for the three digit industry classification. The paper notes both the high level of industry concentration in South African manufacturing, and a rising trend in concentration across a wide range of industries. The paper further explores the impact that industry concentration has on a wide range of indicators of industry performance. We find that increased concentration serves to lower output growth, raise unit labour costs, and to lower labour productivity. The impact on employment, total factor productivity and investment rates based on bivariate examinations of the data are ambiguous. The paper concludes by examining the impact of concentration on employment and investment rates using a dynamic heterogeneous panel estimation methodology. We find that increased concentration unambiguously lowers employment. For investment rates, increased inequality of market share serves to raise investment rates, while falling firm numbers for any given inequality of market share lowers investment rates. The difference can be interpreted as the distinct impact that the pursuit of managerial objectives (large market share promoting further productive capacity expansion) and that market contestability (under falling numbers of firms in an industry, monopolistic incentives to curtail productive capacity rise) have on investment.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Economic Research Southern Africa in its series Working Papers with number 23.

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Length: 43 pages
Date of creation: 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:rza:wpaper:23

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Keywords: Concentration; South Africa; Manufacturing Industry; Investment; Employment;

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References

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  1. L Edwards, 2001. "Globalisation And The Skills Bias Of Occupational Employment In South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 69(1), pages 40-71, 03.
  2. Engle, Robert F & Lilien, David M & Robins, Russell P, 1987. "Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: The Arch-M Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 391-407, March.
  3. Fielding, David, 1997. "Aggregate Investment in South Africa: A Model with Implications for Political Reform," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(3), pages 349-69, August.
  4. Stephen Nickell, 1993. "Competition and Corporate Performance," CEP Discussion Papers dp0182, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  5. James R. Hines Jr., 1998. "Investment Ramifications of Distortionary Tax Subsidies," NBER Working Papers 6615, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Philippe Aghion & Johannes Fedderke & Peter Howitt & Chandana Kularatne & Nicola Viegi, 2008. "Testing Creative Destruction in an Opening Economy: the Case of the South African Manufacturing Industries," Working Papers 93, Economic Research Southern Africa.
  7. Hartman, Richard, 1972. "The effects of price and cost uncertainty on investment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 258-266, October.
  8. Philippe Aghion & Nicholas Bloom & Richard Blundell & Rachel Griffith & Peter Howitt, 2002. "Competition and innovation: an inverted U relationship," IFS Working Papers W02/04, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  9. Luigi Guiso & Giuseppe Parigi, 1999. "Investment And Demand Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(1), pages 185-227, February.
  10. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
  11. Ferderer, J Peter, 1993. "The Impact of Uncertainty on Aggregate Investment Spending: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(1), pages 30-48, February.
  12. Hine, Robert C & Wright, Peter W, 1998. "Trade with Low Wage Economies, Employment and Productivity in UK Manufacturing," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(450), pages 1500-1510, September.
  13. F. C. v. N. FOURIE & M. R. SMIT, 1989. "Trends in Economic Concentration in South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 57(3), pages 156-167, 09.
  14. Fielding, David, 1999. "Manufacturing investment in South Africa: a time-series model," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 405-427, April.
  15. Pagan, Adrian & Ullah, Aman, 1988. "The Econometric Analysis of Models with Risk Terms," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(2), pages 87-105, April.
  16. Bond, Stephen & Van Reenen, John, 2007. "Microeconometric Models of Investment and Employment," Handbook of Econometrics, in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 6, chapter 65 Elsevier.
  17. Johannes Fedderke, 2004. "Investment in Fixed Capital Stock: Testing for the Impact of Sectoral and Systemic Uncertainty," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(2), pages 165-187, 05.
  18. Blundell, Richard & Griffith, Rachel & van Reenen, John, 1999. "Market Share, Market Value and Innovation in a Panel of British Manufacturing Firms," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(3), pages 529-54, July.
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Cited by:
  1. World Bank, 2007. "An Assessment of the Investment Climate in Botswana, Volume 2. Detailed Results and Econometric Analysis," World Bank Other Operational Studies 7747, The World Bank.
  2. Fedderke, Johannes W. & Bogetic & Zeljko, 2006. "Infrastructure and growth in South Africa : direct and indirect productivity impacts of 19 infrastructure measures," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3989, The World Bank.
  3. Philippe Aghion & Johannes Fedderke & Peter Howitt & Chandana Kularatne & Nicola Viegi, 2008. "Testing Creative Destruction in an Opening Economy: the Case of the South African Manufacturing Industries," Working Papers 93, Economic Research Southern Africa.
  4. Nir Klein, 2011. "South Africa," IMF Working Papers 11/204, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Vermeulen, Hester & Kirsten, Johann F. & Sartorius, Kurt, 2008. "Contracting arrangements in agribusiness procurement practices in South Africa," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 47(2), June.

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