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International spillovers, productivity growth and openness in Thailand: an intertemporal general equilibrium analysis

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  • Diao, Xinshen
  • Rattso, Jorn
  • Stokke, Hildegunn Ekroll

Abstract

Thailand has experienced economic growth well above world averages for about 40 years. It is a challenge to understand the sources of this high growth path, and in particular why growth has not slowed down with assumed decreasing returns to capital. We develop an intertemporal general equilbrium model separating between agriculture and industry, and with open capital market and endogenous productivity growth to analyze the underlying adjustment mechanisms. Foreign technology spillover embodied in trade is assumed to be the driving force of the productivity growth, consistent with available econometric evidence. The high growth experience is understood as a transition path with interaction between productivity growth, openness and capital investment. Counterfactual analysis shows how protection may have had serious detrimental effect on growth rate due to productivity and investment slowdown. The role of relative prices in constraining growth is investigated, inspired by the Acemoglu-Ventura hypothesis of growth slowdown due to terms of trade effect. In our setting, low elasticity between domestic and exports goods in supply leads to large relative price shifts for domestic goods, but promotes investment and growth during transition.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Development Economics.

Volume (Year): 76 (2005)
Issue (Month): 2 (April)
Pages: 429-450

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Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:76:y:2005:i:2:p:429-450

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Cited by:
  1. Michael Hübler, 2009. "Energy Saving Technology Diffusion via FDI and Trade: A CGE Model of China," Kiel Working Papers 1479, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  2. Jørn Rattsø & Hildegunn E. Stokke, 2009. "Trade barriers to growth in South Africa: Endogenous investment-productivity-trade interaction," DEGIT Conference Papers c014_010, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
  3. Hübler, Michael, 2011. "Technology diffusion under contraction and convergence: A CGE analysis of China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 131-142, January.
  4. Daras, Tomasz & Hagemejer, Jan, 2008. "The long run-effects of the Poland's accession to the eurozone. Simulation using POLDYN - a dynamic computable general equilibrium model," MPRA Paper 15760, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Diao, Xinshen & Rattso, Jorn & Stokke, Hildegunn E., 2006. "Learning by exporting and structural change: A Ramsey growth model of Thailand," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 293-306, April.
  6. Nadia Belhaj Hassine & Véronique Robichaud & Bernard Decaluwé, 2010. "Agricultural Trade Liberalization, Productivity Gain and Poverty Alleviation: a General Equilibrium Analysis," Cahiers de recherche 1022, CIRPEE.
  7. Serino, L.A., 2009. "Positive natural resource shocks and domestic adjustments in a semi-industrialized economy: Argentina in the 2004-2007 period," ISS Working Papers - General Series 18709, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
  8. Hübler, Michael & Baumstark, Lavinia & Leimbach, Marian & Edenhofer, Ottmar & Bauer, Nico, 2012. "An integrated assessment model with endogenous growth," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 118-131.
  9. Parrado, Ramiro & De Cian, Enrica, 2014. "Technology spillovers embodied in international trade: Intertemporal, regional and sectoral effects in a global CGE framework," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 76-89.
  10. Rattsø, Jørn & Stokke, Hildegunn E., 2012. "Trade policy in a growth model with technology gap dynamics and simulations for South Africa," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 1042-1056.
  11. Hildegunn E. Stokke, 2009. "Multinational supermarket chains in developing countries: does local agriculture benefit?," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 40(6), pages 645-656, November.
  12. Breisinger, Clemens & Collion, Marie-Helen & Diao, Xinshen & Rondot, Pierre, 2010. "Impacts of the triple global crisis on growth and poverty in Yemen," IFPRI discussion papers 955, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  13. Moore, Tomoe, 2010. "A Critical Appraisal of McKinnon's Complementarity Hypothesis: Does the Real Rate of Return on Money Matter for Investment in Developing Countries?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 260-269, March.
  14. Enrica De Cian & Ramiro Parrado, 2012. "Technology Spillovers Embodied in International Trade: Intertemporal, regional and sectoral effects in a global CGE," Working Papers 2012.27, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  15. Hübler, Michael & Pothen, Frank, 2013. "The optimal tariff in the presence of trade-induced productivity gains," ZEW Discussion Papers 13-103, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  16. Breisinger, Clemens & Diao, Xinshen & Thurlow, James, 2009. "Modeling growth options and structural change to reach middle income country status: The case of Ghana," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 514-525, March.
  17. Godbertha Kinyondo & Margaret Mabugu, 2008. "The General Equilibrium Effects of a Productivity Increase on the Economy and Gender in South Africa," Working Papers 200801, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  18. Seyed Komail Tayebi & Fereshte Eshraghi, 2010. "R&D Spillovers, Trade Integration and Expansion of Trade Flows in East -West Asia and Pacific," Iranian Economic Review, Economics faculty of Tehran university, vol. 15(2), pages 1-15, spring.

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