Rational Asset Price Bubbles
AbstractThe solution to a linear model in which supply and/or demand depends on rational expectations of future prices can involve three parts, which we denote as the fundamental component, the deterministic bubble component, and the stochastic bubble component. This paper explores the properties of these solution components, emphasizing the distinction between deterministic bubbles and stochastic bubbles, for a model of inflation and for a model of the evolution of price and quantity in the market fora storable commodity, such as gold. The analysis focuses on stochastic bubbles as a possibility peculiarly associated with models that involve rational expectations. In both the inflation model and the gold model, although the analysis points to no compelling reason to rule out rational stochastic bubbles apriori, conventional behavioral assumptions imply that anyrational bubbles that arise, whether deterministic or stochastic,are explosive. The paper discusses problems of implementing econometric tests for the existence of rational bubbles, and, as an alternative to these tests, suggests "diagnostic checking" of the stationarity properties of time series. Although these diagnostic checks do not constitute definitive hypothesis testing, we conjecture they would provide strong evidence against rational bubbles outside the context of hyperinflation.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 1059.
Date of creation: Jan 1983
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Shiller, Robert J., 1978.
"Rational expectations and the dynamic structure of macroeconomic models : A critical review,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 1-44, January.
- Robert J. Shiller, 1975. "Rational Expectations and the Dynamic Structure of Macroeconomic Models:A Critical Review," NBER Working Papers 0093, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1983.
"Speculative Hyperinflations in Maximizing Models: Can We Rule Them Out?,"
NBER Working Papers
0855, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Speculative Hyperinflations in Maximizing Models: Can We Rule Them Out?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 675-87, August.
- Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1981. "Speculative hyperinflations in a maximizing models: can we rule them out?," International Finance Discussion Papers 195, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-11, July.
- Burmeister, Edwin & Wall, Kent D., 1982. "Kalman filtering estimation of unobserved rational expectations with an application to the German hyperinflation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 255-284, November.
- Shiller, Robert J, 1981.
"Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-36, June.
- Robert J. Shiller, 1980. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," NBER Working Papers 0456, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Stephen W. Salant & Dale W. Henderson, 1976. "Market anticipations, government policy, and the price of gold," International Finance Discussion Papers 81, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Taylor, John B, 1977. "Conditions for Unique Solutions in Stochastic Macroeconomic Models with Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(6), pages 1377-85, September.
- Shiller, Robert J, 1979. "The Volatility of Long-Term Interest Rates and Expectations Models of the Term Structure," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(6), pages 1190-1219, December.
- Dasgupta,P. S. & Heal,G. M., 1985. "Economic Theory and Exhaustible Resources," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521297615, December.
- Kingston, Geoffrey H., 1982. "The semi-log portfolio balance schedule is tenuous," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 389-399.
- Salant, Stephen W & Henderson, Dale W, 1978. "Market Anticipations of Government Policies and the Price of Gold," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(4), pages 627-48, August.
- Flood, Robert P & Garber, Peter M, 1980. "Market Fundamentals versus Price-Level Bubbles: The First Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(4), pages 745-70, August.
- Cassola, Nuno & Morana, Claudio, 2004.
"Monetary policy and the stock market in the euro area,"
Journal of Policy Modeling,
Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 387-399, April.
- Cassola, Nuno & Morana, Claudio, 2002. "Monetary policy and the stock market in the euro area," Working Paper Series 0119, European Central Bank.
- Broze, L. & Gouriéroux, C. & Szafarz, A., 1986.
"Bulles spéculatives et transmission d’information sur le marché d’un bien stockable,"
Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 62(2), pages 166-184, juin.
- Laurence Broze & Christian Gouriéroux & Ariane Szafarz, 1986. "Bulles spéculatives et transmission d'information sur le marché d'un bien stockable," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/683, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Herschel I. Grossman, 1984. "Counterfactuals, Forecasts, and Choice-Theoretic Modelling of Policy," NBER Working Papers 1381, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Behzad T. Diba & Herschel I. Grossman, 1984. "Rational Bubbles in the Price of Gold," NBER Working Papers 1300, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Erwin W. Heri, 1986. "Irrationales rational gesehen: Eine Übersicht über die Theorie der "Bubbles"," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 122(II), pages 163-186, June.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.