Can the learnability criterion ensure determinacy in New Keynesian Models?
AbstractForward-looking RE models such as the popular New Keynesian (NK) model do not provide a unique prediction about how the model economy behaves. We need some mechanism that ensures determinacy. McCallum (2011) says it is not needed because models are learnable only with the determinate solution and so the NK model, once learnt in this way, will be determinate. We agree: the only learnable solution that has agents converge on the true NK model is the bubble-free one. But once they have converged they must then understand the model and its full solution therefore including the bubble. Hence the learnability criterion still fails to pick a unique RE solution in NK models.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section in its series Cardiff Economics Working Papers with number E2012/16.
Length: 16 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2012
Date of revision:
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New-Keynesian; Taylor Rule; Determinacy; E-stability; Learnability;
Other versions of this item:
- Minford, Patrick & Srinivasan, Naveen, 2012. "Can the learnability criterion ensure determinacy in New Keynesian Models?," CEPR Discussion Papers 9039, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
- D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-09-03 (All new papers)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- James Bullard & Kaushik Mitra, 2002.
"Learning about monetary policy rules,"
2000-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Patrick Minford & Naveen Srinivasan, 2011.
"Determinacy in New Keynesian Models: A Role for Money after All?,"
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(2), pages 211-229, 06.
- Minford, Patrick & Srinivasan, Naveen, 2009. "Determinacy in New Keynesian models: a role for money after all?," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2009/21, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section, revised Apr 2011.
- Minford, Patrick & Srinivasan, Naveen, 2010. "Determinacy in New Keynesian Models: a role for money after all?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7960, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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