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Determinacy in New Keynesian models: a role for money after all?

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  • Minford, Patrick

    () (Cardiff Business School)

  • Srinivasan, Naveen

Abstract

The New-Keynesian Taylor-Rule model of inflation determination with no role for money is incomplete. As Cochrane (2007a) argues, it has no credible mechanism for ruling out bubbles and as a results fails to provide a reason for private agents to pick a unique stable path. We propose a way forward. Our proposal is in effect that the New-Keynesian model should be formulated with a money demand and money supply function. It should also embody a terminal condition for money supply behaviour. If an unstable path occurred the central bank would switch to a money supply Rule explicitly designed to stop it via the terminal condition. This would be therefore a 'threat/trigger strategy' complementing the Taylor Rule - only to be invoked if inflation misbehaved. Thus we answer the criticisms levelled at the Taylor Rule that it has no credible mechanism for ruling out bubbles. However it does imply that money cannot be avoided int he New Keynesian set-up, contrary to Woodford (2008).

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section in its series Cardiff Economics Working Papers with number E2009/21.

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Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2009
Date of revision: Apr 2011
Handle: RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2009/21

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Keywords: New-Keynesian; Taylor Rule; Determinacy;

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  1. Minford, Patrick, 2008. "Commentary on Economic Projections and Rules of Thumb for Monetary Policy (by Athanasios Orphanides and Volker Wieland)," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2008/16, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
  2. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," CEPR Discussion Papers 1908, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Benjamin Friedman, 2003. "The LM Curve: A Not-So-Fond Farewell," NBER Working Papers 10123, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 2139, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Speculative Hyperinflations in Maximizing Models: Can We Rule Them Out?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 675-87, August.
  6. Michael Woodford, 2007. "How Important is Money in the Conduct of Monetary Policy?," NBER Working Papers 13325, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. David H. Romer, 2000. "Keynesian Macroeconomics without the LM Curve," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(2), pages 149-169, Spring.
  8. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-11, July.
  9. McCallum, Bennett T., 2009. "Inflation determination with Taylor rules: Is new-Keynesian analysis critically flawed?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(8), pages 1101-1108, November.
  10. Dale W. Henderson & Warwick J. McKibbin, 1993. "A comparison of some basic monetary policy regimes for open economies: implications of different degrees of instrument adjustment and wage persistence," International Finance Discussion Papers 458, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  11. John B. Taylor, 2000. "Teaching Modern Macroeconomics at the Principles Level," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 90-94, May.
  12. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  13. Patrick Minford & David Peel, 2003. "Optimal monetary policy: is price-level targeting the next step?," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 50(5), pages 650-667, November.
  14. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
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Cited by:
  1. Luca Sessa, 2012. "Economic (in)stability under monetary targeting," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 858, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  2. Minford, Patrick & Srinivasan, Naveen, 2012. "Can the learnability criterion ensure determinacy in New Keynesian Models?," CEPR Discussion Papers 9039, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Minford, Patrick & Ou, Zhirong & Wickens, Michael, 2012. "Revisiting the Great Moderation using the Method of Indirect Inference," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2012/9, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section, revised May 2013.
  4. Alho, Kari E.O., 2011. "How to Restore Sustainability of the Euro?," Discussion Papers 1259, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.

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