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Liquidity risk in securities settlement

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Author Info
Johan Devriese () (National Bank of Belgium, Department of International Cooperation and Financial Stability)
Janet Mitchell () (National Bank of Belgium, Department of International Cooperation and Financial Stability)

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Abstract

This paper studies the potential impact on securities settlement systems (SSSs) of a major market disruption, caused by the default of the largest player. A multiperiod, multisecurity model with intraday credit is used to simulate direct and second-round settlement failures triggered by the default, as well as the dynamics of settlement failures, arising from a lag in settlement relative to the date of trades. The effects of the defaulter's net trade position, the numbers of securities and participants in the market, and participants' trading behavior are also analyzed. We show that in SSSs - contrary to payment systems - large and persistent settlement failures are possible even when ample liquidity is provided. Central bank liquidity support to SSSs thus cannot eliminate settlement failures due to major market disruptions. This is due to the fact that securities transactions involve a cash leg and a securities leg, and liquidity can affect only the cash side of a transaction. Whereas a broad program of securities borrowing and lending might help, it is precisely during periods of market disruption that participants will be least willing to lend securities. Settlement failures can continue to occur beyond the period corresponding to the lag in settlement. This is due to the fact that, upon observation of a default, market participants must form expectations about the impact of the default, and these expectations affect current trading behavior. If, ex post, fewer of the previous trades settle than expected, new settlement failures will occur. This result has interesting implications for financial stability. On the one hand, conservative reactions by market participants to a default - for example by limiting the volume of trades - can result in a more rapid return of the settlement system to a normal level of efficiency. On the other hand, limitation of trading by market participants can reduce market liquidity, which may have a negative impact on financial stability.

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Paper provided by National Bank of Belgium in its series Research series with number 200507-2.

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Length: 43 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2005
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Handle: RePEc:nbb:reswpp:200507-2

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Related research
Keywords: Securities settlement; liquity risk; contagion;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Joachim Keller, 2008. "Agency problems in structured finance – a case study of European CLOs," Documents series 200808-22, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
  2. Giulia Iori & Christophe Deissenberg, 2008. "An Analysis of Settlement Risk Contagion in Alternative Securities Settlement Architectures," City University Economics Discussion Papers 08/03, Department of Economics, City University, London. [Downloadable!]
  3. Philippe Moës, 2006. "The production function approach to the Belgian output gap, Estimation of a Multivariate Structural Time Series Model," Research series 200609-1, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Olivier Blanchard & Jordi Gali, 2006. "A new Keynesian model with unemployment," Research series 200610-4, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Joseph Plasmans & Tomasz Michalak & Jorge Fornero, 2006. "Simulation, estimation and welfare implications of monetary policies in a 3-country NOEM model," Research series 200610-6, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
  6. François Coppens & David Vivet, 2006. "The single European electricity market: A long road to convergence," Documents series 200605-3, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
  7. Philippe Moës, 2008. "Multivariate structural time series models with dual cycles : implications for measurement of output gap and potential growth," Research series 200808-20, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
  8. John P Jackson & Mark J Manning, . "Comparing the pre-settlement risk implications of alternative clearing arrangements," Bank of England working papers 321, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
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