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Predicting how People Play Games: a Simple Dynamic Model of Choice

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Author Info
Sarin, R.
Vahid, F.

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Abstract

We use the model developed in Sarin and Vahid (1999, GEB) to explain the experiments reported in Erev and Roth (1998, AER). The model supposes that players maximize subject to their "beliefs" which are non-probabilistic and scalar-valued. They are intended to describe the payoffs the players subjectively assess they will obtain from a strategy. In an earlier paper (Sarin and Vahid (1997) we showed that the model predicted behaviour in repeated coordination games remarkably well, and better than equilibrium theory of reinforcement learning models. In this paper we show that the same one-parameter model can also explain behaviour in games with a unique mixed strategy Nash equilibrium better than alternative models. Hence, we obtain further support for the simple dynamic model.

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Paper provided by Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics in its series Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers with number 12/99.

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Length: 19 pages
Date of creation: Oct 1999
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Publication status: Published in Games and Economic Behavior (2001), 34, 104-122.
Handle: RePEc:msh:ebswps:1999-12

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Related research
Keywords: Game Theory; Probability;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C70 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - General
C60 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods and Programming - - - General

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  1. Dana Heller, 2000. "Parametric Adaptive Learning," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1496, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  2. Ido Erev & Alvin Roth & Robert Slonim & Greg Barron, 2007. "Learning and equilibrium as useful approximations: Accuracy of prediction on randomly selected constant sum games," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 29-51, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Anna Gunnthorsdottir & Amnon Rapoport, 2003. "The effect of sharing rules on group competition," Experimental 0307003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  4. David Cooper & Nick Feltovich & Alvin Roth & Rami Zwick, 2003. "Relative versus Absolute Speed of Adjustment in Strategic Environments: Responder Behavior in Ultimatum Games," Experimental Economics, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 181-207, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Rutstrom, E. Elizabet & Wilcox, Nathaniel, 2008. "Stated versus inferred beliefs: A methodological inquiry and experimental test," MPRA Paper 11852, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  6. Mosquera, M.A. & Borm, P. & Fiestras-Janeiro, M.G. & Garcia-Jurado, I. & Voorneveld, M., 2005. "Characterizing cautious choice," Discussion Paper 54, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Alexander Smajgl, 2004. "Modelling the effect of learning and evolving rules on the use of common-pool resources," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 178, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
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