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DGSE Model-Based Forecasting of Modeled and Non-Modeled Inflation Variables in South Africa

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  • Rangan Gupta
  •  Patrick Kanda
  • Mampho Modise
  • Alessia Paccagnini

Abstract

Inflation forecasts are a key ingredient for monetary policymaking - especially in an inflation targeting country such as South Africa. Generally, a typical Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) only includes a core set of variables. As such, other variables, e.g. such as alternative measures of inflation that might be of interest to policymakers, do not feature in the model. Given this, we implement a closed-economy New Keynesian DSGE model-based procedure which includes variables that do not explicitly appear in the model. We estimate such a model using an in-sample covering 1971Q2 to 1999Q4, and generate recursive forecasts over 2000Q1-2011Q4. The hybrid DSGE performs extremely well in forecasting inflation variables (both core and non-modeled) in comparison with forecasts reported by other models such as AR(1).

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File URL: http://dipeco.economia.unimib.it/repec/pdf/mibwpaper259.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 259.

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Length: 20
Date of creation: Nov 2013
Date of revision: Nov 2013
Handle: RePEc:mib:wpaper:259

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Keywords: DSGE model; in ation; core variables; non-core variables;

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References

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  1. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2002. "An estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the euro area," Working Paper Research 35, National Bank of Belgium.
  2. Gupta, Rangan & Steinbach, Rudi, 2013. "A DSGE-VAR model for forecasting key South African macroeconomic variables," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 19-33.
  3. Sami Alpanda & Kevin Kotzé & Geoffrey Woglom, 2010. "The Role Of The Exchange Rate In A New Keynesian Dsge Model For The South African Economy," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 78(2), pages 170-191, 06.
  4. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 2001. "Nominal rigidities and the dynamic effects of a shock to monetary policy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
  5. Goodness C. Aye & Mehmet Balcilar & Adel Bosch & Rangan Gupta, 2013. "Housing and the Business Cycle in South Africa," Working Papers 201323, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  6. Consolo, Agostino & Favero, Carlo A. & Paccagnini, Alessia, 2009. "On the Statistical Identification of DSGE Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 7176, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Guangling 'Dave' Liu & Rangan Gupta & Eric Schaling, 2009. "A New-Keynesian DSGE model for forecasting the South African economy," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(5), pages 387-404.
  8. Marco Del Negro & Frank Schorfheide, 2004. "Priors from General Equilibrium Models for VARS," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(2), pages 643-673, 05.
  9. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles : a Bayesian DSGE Approach," Working Paper Research 109, National Bank of Belgium.
  10. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Kevin Kotze, 2013. "Forecasting South African Macroeconomic Data with a Nonlinear DSGE Model," Working Papers 201313, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  11. Frank Schorfheide & Keith Sill & Maxym Kryshko, 2008. "DSGE model-based forecasting of non-modelled variables," Working Papers 08-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  12. Del Negro, Marco & Schorfheide, Frank & Smets, Frank & Wouters, Rafael, 2007. "On the Fit of New Keynesian Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 123-143, April.
  13. Sami Alpanda & Kevin Kotzé & Geoffrey Woglom, 2011. "Forecasting Performance Of An Estimated Dsge Model For The South African Economy," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 79(1), pages 50-67, 03.
  14. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
  15. Sims, Christopher A, 2002. "Solving Linear Rational Expectations Models," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 20(1-2), pages 1-20, October.
  16. Guangling (Dave) Liu & Rangan Gupta, 2006. "A Small-Scale DSGE Model for Forecasting the South African Economy," Working Papers 200621, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  17. Sami Alpanda & Kevin Kotze & Geoffrey Woglom, 2010. "Should Central Banks of Small Open Economies Respond to Exchange Rate Fluctuations? The Case of South Africa," Working Papers 174, Economic Research Southern Africa.
  18. Guangling “Dave” Liu & Rangan Gupta & Eric Schaling, 2010. "Forecasting the South African economy: a hybrid-DSGE approach," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 37(2), pages 181-195, May.
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