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Should Central Banks of Small Open Economies Respond to Exchange Rate Fluctuations? The Case of South Africa

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Author Info

  • Sami Alpanda
  • Kevin Kotze
  • Geoffrey Woglom

Abstract

We estimate a New Keynesian small open economy DSGE model for South Africa, using Bayesian techniques. The model features imperfect competition, incomplete asset markets, partial exchange rate pass-through, and other commonly used nominal and real rigidities, such as sticky prices, price indexation and habit formation. We study the effects of various shocks on macroeconomic variables, and calculate the optimal Taylor rule coefficients using a loss function for the central bank. We find that the optimal Taylor rule places a heavier weight on inflation and output than the estimated Taylor rule, but almost no weight on the depreciation of currency.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Economic Research Southern Africa in its series Working Papers with number 174.

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Length: 47 pages
Date of creation: 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:rza:wpaper:174

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Related research

Keywords: optimal monetary policy; small open economy; Bayesian estimation;

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Cited by:
  1. Aron, Janine & Farrell, Greg & Muellbauer, John & Sinclair, Peter, 2010. "Exchange Rate Pass-through and Monetary Policy in South Africa," CEPR Discussion Papers 8153, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Rangan Gupta & Patrick T. kanda & Mampho P. Modise & Alessia Paccagnini, 2013. "DSGE Model-Based Forecasting of Modeled and Non-Modeled Inflation Variables in South Africa," Working Papers 201374, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  3. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Kevin Kotze, 2013. "Forecasting South African Macroeconomic Data with a Nonlinear DSGE Model," Working Papers 201313, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  4. Gupta, Rangan & Steinbach, Rudi, 2013. "A DSGE-VAR model for forecasting key South African macroeconomic variables," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 19-33.

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