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Economic Performance and Political Outcomes: An Analysis of the 1995 Turkish Parliamentary Election Results

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  • Ali T. Akarca
  • Aysit Tansel

    ()
    (Department of Economics, METU)

Abstract

1995 Turkish parliamentary election was held almost under the conditions of a controlled experiment. The unique cross-section data pertaining to this election and the economic and political conditions surrounding it were utilized to study the relationship between the government’s economic performance and the vote shares of political parties. Turkish voters are found to be myopic, not looking back beyond the election year in assessing the government’s economic performance. A good performance is found to benefit the primary incumbent party at the expense of extremist opposition parties and a bad performance is found to benefit extremist opposition parties at the expense of the primary party in power. The junior party in a coalition government and the centrist opposition parties appear to be unaffected by the economic conditions. Evidence found is consistent with a strategic voting by the electorate, to diffuse power and/or to try parties and leaders that were not tried before or last tried a long time ago. These conclusions are essentially in conformity with the literature on other countries.

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File URL: http://www.erc.metu.edu.tr/menu/series04/0401.pdf
File Function: First version, 2004
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University in its series ERC Working Papers with number 0401.

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Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2004
Date of revision: Jan 2004
Handle: RePEc:met:wpaper:0401

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Keywords: Turkey; election;

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  1. Rosenthal, Howard & Alesina, Alberto, 1989. "Partisan Cycles in Congressional Elections and the Macroeconomy," Scholarly Articles 4553031, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  2. Ray C. Fair, 1976. "The Effects of Economic Events on Votes for President," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 418, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  3. Alberto Alesina & Howard Rosenthal, 1988. "Partisan Cycles in Congressional Elections and the Macroeconomy," NBER Working Papers 2706, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Londregan, John & Alesina, Alberto, 1993. "A Model of the Political Economy of the United States," Scholarly Articles 4552529, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  5. Peltzman, Sam, 1987. "Economic Conditions and Gubernatorial Elections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(2), pages 293-97, May.
  6. Alberto Alesina & John Londregan & Howard Rosenthal, 1991. "A Model of the Political Economy of the United States," NBER Working Papers 3611, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Alesina, Alberto & Londregan, John & Rosenthal, Howard, 1996. " The 1992, 1994 and 1996 Elections: A Comment and a Forecast," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 88(1-2), pages 115-25, July.
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