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Non-economic voting and incumbent strength in Turkey

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  • Hazama, Yasushi
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    Abstract

    Evidence suggests that incumbent parties find it harder to be re-elected in emerging than in advanced democracies because of more serious economic problems in the former. Yet the pro-Islamic Justice and Development Party (AKP) has ruled Turkey since 2002. Does economic performance sufficiently account for the electoral strength of the AKP government? Reliance on economic performance alone to gain public support makes a government vulnerable to economic fluctuations. This study includes time-series regressions for the period 1950-2011 in Turkey and demonstrates that even among Turkey's long-lasting governments, the AKP has particular electoral strength that cannot be adequately explained by economic performance.

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    File URL: http://ir.ide.go.jp/dspace/bitstream/2344/1124/3/ARRIDE_Discussion_No.340_hazama.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2012
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO) in its series IDE Discussion Papers with number 340.

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    Date of creation: Mar 2012
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    Publication status: Published in IDE Discussion Paper. No. 340. 2012.3
    Handle: RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper340

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    Related research

    Keywords: Internal politics; Elections; Political parties; Economic conditions; Turkey; Economic voting;

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    1. Ali Akarca & Aysit Tansel, 2006. "Economic Performance and Political Outcomes: An Analysis of the Turkish Parliamentary and Local Election Results Between 1950 and 2004," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 129(1), pages 77-105, October.
    2. Uppal, Yogesh, 2007. "The Disadvantaged Incumbents: Estimating Incumbency Effects in Indian State Legislatures," MPRA Paper 8515, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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