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Analysis of the 2009 Turkish Election Results from an Economic Voting Perspective

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  • Ali T. Akarca

Abstract

The outcome of the 29 March 2009 Turkish local administrations election is analyzed in light of economic voting literature, both from historical and geographical perspectives. First, the nationwide vote share of the incumbent party (AKP) is compared to what would be expected based on the patterns observed in the past twenty-six National Assembly, Senate, and Provincial Council elections held between 1951 and 2007. For this purpose a vote equation is estimated using aggregate nationwide time-series data. This equation takes into account the roles played by economic conditions, political inertia, incumbency factors, strategic voting by the electorate, and the political realignments. Second, inter-party vote movements between the 2007 parliamentary and the 2009 local administrations elections are analyzed, through systems of party vote equations, estimated separately for different regions of the country, using cross-provincial data. The results obtained show that the outcome of the 2009 election was predictable on the basis of historical patterns. The vote loses of the AKP is attributable mainly to two transitory factors: poor economic conditions prevailing at the time of the election and typical strategic-voting experienced in local elections. The party’s vote losses tended to be higher in the east than in the west and in provinces where its support is high than where it is low. The voters who deserted the AKP went to the DP, SP and DTP, in the mid-eastern and south-eastern Anatolia, and to the MHP and SP, in the rest of the country.

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File URL: http://www.ersj.eu/repec/ers/papers/10_3_p1.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by European Research Studies Journal in its journal European Research Studies Journal.

Volume (Year): XIII (2010)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 3-38

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Handle: RePEc:ers:journl:v:xiii:y:2010:i:3:p:3-38

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Web page: http://www.ersj.eu/

Related research

Keywords: Elections; Voter behavior; Economic voting; Strategic voting; Political geography; Turkey;

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References

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  1. Ali T. AKARCA, 2009. "A prediction for AKP’s nationwide vote share in the 29 March 2009 Turkish local elections," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 24(276), pages 7-22.
  2. Ali Akarca & Aysit Tansel, 2006. "Economic Performance and Political Outcomes: An Analysis of the Turkish Parliamentary and Local Election Results Between 1950 and 2004," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 129(1), pages 77-105, October.
  3. Nannestad, Peter & Paldam, Martin, 1994. " The VP-Function: A Survey of the Literature on Vote and Popularity Functions after 25 Years," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 79(3-4), pages 213-45, June.
  4. Durbin, J, 1970. "Testing for Serial Correlation in Least-Squares Regression When Some of the Regressors are Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 38(3), pages 410-21, May.
  5. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
  6. Baslevent, Cem & Akarca, Ali T., 2008. "Micro evidence on inter-party vote movements in turkey: Who voted for AKP in 2002?," MPRA Paper 11683, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Ali T. Akarca & Cem Baslevent, 2010. "Inter-Party Vote Movements In Turkey: The Sources Of Akp Votes In 2007," Working Papers 509, Economic Research Forum, revised Mar 2010.
  8. Akarca, Ali T. & Tansel, Aysit, 2007. "Social and Economic Determinants of Turkish Voter Choice in the 1995 Parliamentary Election," IZA Discussion Papers 2881, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Ali T. Akarca, 2011. "Inter-election vote swings for the Turkish ruling party: The impact of economic performance and other factors," Equilibrium, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 6, pages 7-25.
  2. Ali T. Akarca & Aysit Tansel, 2012. "Turkish Voter Response to Government Incompetence and Corruption Related to the 1999 Earthquakes," ERC Working Papers 1202, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Jan 2012.
  3. May Elsayyad & Shima'a Hanafy, 2012. "Voting Islamist or Voting secular? An empirical analysis of Voting Outcomes in “Arab Spring” Egypt," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201251, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).

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