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Micro evidence on inter-party vote movements in turkey: Who voted for AKP in 2002?

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  • Baslevent, Cem
  • Akarca, Ali T.

Abstract

Using data drawn from a survey conducted shortly after the 2002 elections, we investigate the Justice and Development Party’s (AKP) election victory from the perspective of inter-party vote movements. Our aim is not only to identify the parties from which the AKP votes originated, but also the segments of these parties' voter bases the party appealed to in particular. Descriptive statistics suggest that almost all of the voters who had voted for the pro-Islamist party in 1999, about half of those who supported the center-right and the ultra-nationalist parties, and one-fifth to two fifth of the supporters of the center-left parties were captured by the AKP. Given that the actual vote share of the party was 34.3 percent, we interpret these figures as evidence of further voter realignment after the election. Our econometric work reveals that confidence in the economic performance of the party was a leading factor in the election outcome. For the voters attracted from the left-of-center parties, ideological factors also played an important role, whereas in the case of voters transferred from the far-right pro-Islamist and ultra-nationalist parties, it was the demographic factors. For the voters coming from the center-right, both sets of variables were important.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 11683.

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Date of creation: 20 Nov 2008
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:11683

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Keywords: Turkey; elections; party choice; voter behavior; logit estimation;

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Cited by:
  1. Ali AKARCA & Cem BAŞLEVENT, 2009. "Inter-party vote movements in Turkey: The sources of AKP votes in 2007," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 24(285), pages 32-47.
  2. Ali T. Akarca, 2011. "Inter-election vote swings for the Turkish ruling party: The impact of economic performance and other factors," Equilibrium, Wydawnictwo Naukowe Uniwersytetu Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 6, pages 7-25.

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